BJK Company is ready to launch a new product domestically. Historically, the com
ID: 3276025 • Letter: B
Question
BJK Company is ready to launch a new product domestically. Historically, the company's products have been successful domestically 92% of the time. This new product has been sold overseas for the past 6 months as this has been the traditional market strategy (test a product overseas before bringing it to the domestic market). Historically, products which are successful domestically were successful in the international market 90% of the time. Conversely, products which fail domestically had already failed internationally 93% of the time.
Determine the probability that this new product will be successful domestically if the product has been successful overseas. Indicate your answer to four decimal places (i.e. 0.0001).
Explanation / Answer
let SD,SI are being successful domestically and internationally respectively
FD and FI are being failed domestically and internationally respectively
company's products have been successful domestically =P(SD) =0.92
products which are successful domestically were successful in the international market =P(SI|SD) =0.90
products which fail domestically had already failed internationally =P(FI|FD) =0.93
probability that product is successful overseas =P(SI) =P(SD)*P(SI|SD)+P(FD)*P(SI|FD)
=0.92*0.90+(1-0.92)*(1-0.93) =0.8336
therefore probability that this new product will be successful domestically if the product has been successful overseas =P(SD|SI) =0.92*0.90/0.8336=0.9933
Related Questions
Navigate
Integrity-first tutoring: explanations and feedback only — we do not complete graded work. Learn more.