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According to the Internal Revenue Service, the average income tax refund for the

ID: 3039964 • Letter: A

Question

According to the Internal Revenue Service, the average income tax refund for the 2011 tax year was $2,913. As- sume the refund per person follows the normal probability distribution with a standard deviation of $950. 11 a. What is the probability that a randomly selected tax return refund from the 2011 tax year will be 1. more than $2,000? 2. between $1,600 and $2,500? 3. between $3,200 and $4,000? 79 Continuous Proba b. Confirm the answers to part a using Excel or PHStat. c. What refund amount represents the 35th percentile of tax returns?

Explanation / Answer

a) P(X>2000)

= P(Z>(2000-2913)/950)

= P(Z>-0.96)

Use excel function

1-NORMSDIST(-0.96)

= 0.8317

b) P(1600<X<2500)

= P((1600-2913)/950<Z<(2500-2913)/950)

= P(-1.38<Z<-0.43)

c) For 35th Percentile = NORMSINV(0.35)*950+2913

= 2546.95

Use excel function

NORMSDIST(-1.38)-NORMSDIST(-0.43)

= 0.2484

c) P(3200<X<4000)

= P((3200-2913)/950<Z<(4000-2913)/950)

= P(0.30<Z<1.14)

Use excel function

NORMSDIST(1.14)-NORMSDIST(0.30)

= 0.2550

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