C. W. Churchman once said that \"mathematics tends to lull the unsuspecting into

Question

C. W. Churchman once said that "mathematics tends to lull the unsuspecting

        into believing that that he who thinks elaborately thinks well." Do you think

        that the best decision models are those that are most elaborate and most

          complex mathematically? Why?

Why might a manager be forced to use simulation instead of an analytical

        model in dealing with each of the following problems:

Inventory ordering policy?

Ships docking in a port to unload?

Bank clerk service windows?

The UK economy?

Explanation / Answer

Mathematics sometime create an illusion by some providing output which is very much favorable and more algned to the requirement. At the same time it might not fall in place with objectivs.Thus it is a fact that all mathematical model and complex model will not become a good decision model The quality of decision model not lies with in how eloborate or how complex it is but in the way it made upof using all constraints, dependent and independent factors and proper weightage for all scenarios.

2: a: Inventory ordering policy: Simulation could help the manager in determining the more realsitic stock variation on different condition such as full throttle, least demand, unexpected spike etc.

b: Ship docking comprises of various activities in a sequential manner, Simulation help in conducting a time study , optimising the space required based on the demand or total quantities, optimising the time through value stream mapping , reducing turn around time etc. Analyical model canot bring such qualitative results.

c: Bankl clerk windows can be effectively analysed with simulation model on the queing system, time taken per service, average arrival, effectivenes of queing system etc.

UK economy: This can porovide more realsitic aspect through simulation which can determine the various cause and effects on various scenarios which helps in decision making (such as doing heat maps or sensitivity analysis on interest rate change, changing trade norms, tax system etc.). Analytical models can only bring result from historical concepts which may not be realisitic or updated with the context.

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