probabilities of being kind!) sick from burrito at 25%, the probability of it be

Question

probabilities of being kind!) sick from burrito at 25%, the probability of it being seriously(5) sick at 10% and if the burrito is good(G) Let's say that she also finds an abandoned bagel sandwich in Campus Center.It's not as tasty-looking as a burrito, but she thinks that it is probably safer to eat. She assesses the probability that it's kinda bad (K) at 10% and that it's seriously bad (S) at 5%. Otherwise, the sandwich be good and not make her sick (G). She tells you that she will flip a coin to decide which one she will eat and you go to class without knowing how the coin fell. She gets very ill the next day and you have to take her to the hospital. Use Bayes theorem to determine the probability that it's because she ate the burrito. *Send my your calculations via email** O 1/3 O 1/5 SUBMIT Never submit passwords through Google Forms

Explanation / Answer

A be the event that she ate sandwich and B be the event that she ate burrito.

P(A) = P(B) = 0.5 (coin flip)

P(B|S) = P(S|B)P(B)/P(S) = 0.1*0.5/P(S) = 0.05/P(S).

Now, P(S) = P(S|B)P(B) + P(S|A)P(A) = 0.05 + 0.05*0.5 = 0.05 + 0.025 = 0.075.\

P(B|S) = 0.05/0.075 = 50/75 = 2/3

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