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Until the summer of 2008, the real estate market in Fresno, California had been

ID: 3304596 • Letter: U

Question

Until the summer of 2008, the real estate market in Fresno, California had been booming, with prices skyrocketing. Recently, a study showed the sales patterns in Fresno for single-family homes. One chart presented in the commission's report is reproduced here. It shows the number of homes sold by price range and number of days on the market.       

                                                                                        Days on the Market

Suppose a home has just sold in Fresno and was on the market less than 8 days, what is the probability that the house sold for more than a million dollars?

Price Range ($000) 1-7 8-30 Over 30 Under $200 125 15 30 $200-$500 200 150 100 $500-$1,000 400 525 175 Over $1000 125 140 35

Explanation / Answer

Let B be an event such that a house is sold for more than 1mn

Probability that a house will be in the market for less than 8 days, P(A) = 850/2020 = 0.4208

Probability that house sold for more than 1mn and was in the market for less than 8 days, P(A and B) = 125/2020

Required probability, P(B|A) = P( A and B) / P(A) = 125/850 = 0.1471

Price Range ($000) 7-Jan 30-Aug Over 30 Under $200 125 15 30 170 $200-$500 200 150 100 450 $500-$1,000 400 525 175 1100 Over $1000 125 140 35 300 850 830 340 2020
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