8 points QUESTION 30 Suppose the following are the seasonal indices for the firs

Question

8 points   

QUESTION 30

Suppose the following are the seasonal indices for the first three quarters of the year for a quarterly series:

Quarter

Seasonal Index

Q1

73.8

Q2

88.3

Q3

106.4

Remember that the seasonal indices should average 100 so you should be able to infer the seasonal index for Q4.


Furthermore, suppose that the estimated coeffcients from a regression of the deseasonalized series on Time are given below:

Coefficients

Intercept

2,696

Time

66.1

What is the forecast for period 88, if period 88 is a Q4? (please round your answer to 1 decimal place)

Quarter

Seasonal Index

Q1

73.8

Q2

88.3

Q3

106.4

Explanation / Answer

as average of seasonal index =100

hence (73.8+88.3+106.4+Q4)/4=100

Q4=400-73.8-88.3-106.4=131.5

deseasonalized forecast for period 88 =2696+66.1*88=8512.8

hence seasonalized forecast =8512.8*131.5/100=11194.3

Related Questions

Navigate

• Browse (All)
• Browse 8
• Subjects

Integrity-first tutoring: explanations and feedback only — we do not complete graded work. Learn more.