Suppose that only 2% of individuals undergoing a particular medical test hve the

Question

Suppose that only 2% of individuals undergoing a particular medical test hve the disease that the test is inted to identify. If an individual has the disease, the probability that the test indicates the presence of the disease is .98. If an individual doees not have the disease, the probabilit that the test falsely gives a positive result for the disease is .05. If the test result for an individual is positive, what is the probability that this individual actuall has the disease?

I derived .124 but none of the solutions match.

Explanation / Answer

probabilty of +ve test result =0.02*0.98+0.98*0.05=0.0686

hence probability that this individual actuall has the disease given test is +ve =0.02*0.98/0.0686=0.2857

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