Suppose that only 1% of individuals undergoing a particular medical test have th

Question

Suppose that only 1% of individuals undergoing a particular medical test have the disease that the test is intending to identify. If an individual has the disease the probability that the test will correctly identify the presence of the disease is 0.95. If an individual does not have the disease the probability that the test falsely gives a positive result is 0.05.

a) Create a hypotherical one hundred thousand table illustrating this situation, where the row categories are disease (yes, no) and the column catergories are test results (positive, negative).(show your work)

b) Draw a tree diagram for this situation. (show your work)

c) Using the table from (a) or the tree diagram from (b), find the proportion of people who will test positive fro the disease. (show your work)

d) Find the probability that you actually have the disease given that your test results are positive. (show your work).

Explanation / Answer

a) Positive Negative Total

Yes 0.95% 0.05% 1%

No 4.95% 94.05% 99%

Total 5.9% 94.1% 1

c) P( positive) = 5.9%

d) P( Disease/Positve) =0.95/5.9=95/590

Related Questions

Navigate

• Browse (All)
• Browse S
• Subjects

Integrity-first tutoring: explanations and feedback only — we do not complete graded work. Learn more.