From World War II to today, oil prices have risen sharply and have caused multip

Question

From World War II to today, oil prices have risen sharply and have caused multiple major recessions. The final paper in this class will be focused on several key events in global economic history that are related to this steep rise in oil prices and what their effects have been.

Focus of the Final Paper
In this paper, you will trace several major international economic events beginning with the aftermath of World War II and ending with the current time. In your discussion, describe each event and its lasting impact on the world economy, particularly how it affected international monetary relations. Be sure to touch on how each event led up to the current high price of oil.

Your analysis should include the following events:

Research
Outside scholarly research will be required in the writing of this paper. You will find it necessary to make use of the Ashford Online Library%u2019s databases and the list of recommended articles and websites in this course along with the textbook. Your paper must reference at least five outside resources.

Writing the Final Paper
The Final Paper:

Explanation / Answer

As shown in Chart 1, the United States has seen a number of episodes (marked in red) in

which oil prices rise sharply and are higher than had been seen in the previous three years.

These episodes have preceded all but two of the U.S. recessions (shown in the gray bars)

since World War II. The two exceptions are the 1960 and 1970 recessions.

Sharply rising oil prices also provided false signals in the mid%u20101990s and from 2002 to

2005. In addition, most attribute the 2008%u20102009 recession to a financial market meltdown

rather than the 2007 oil price spike. Nonetheless, economist James Hamilton argues that

had oil prices not risen, the economy would have merely slowed down rather than

downshifted into recession.1

In early 2012, oil prices have not shown the sharp increases that signal that a recession is

imminent. That is, oil prices have not risen to the point where they are higher than they

have been during the past three years. In addition, the futures market shows oil prices

falling from current levels, rather than heading upward to the heights necessary to provoke

a recession.

http://cber.unlv.edu/commentary/CBER-20Apr2012.pdf

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