Usin PERT, Adam Munson was able to determine that the expected project completio

Question

Usin PERT, Adam Munson was able to determine that the expected project completion time for the construction of a pleasure yacht is 24 months, and the project variance is 16. what is the probability that the project will be completed in eight months, what is the probability that the project will be completed in 23 months, what is the probability that the project will be completed in 28 months, what is the probability that the project will be completed in 40 months? The due date that yields a 95 percent chance of completion equals how many months? Usin PERT, Adam Munson was able to determine that the expected project completion time for the construction of a pleasure yacht is 24 months, and the project variance is 16. what is the probability that the project will be completed in eight months, what is the probability that the project will be completed in 23 months, what is the probability that the project will be completed in 28 months, what is the probability that the project will be completed in 40 months? The due date that yields a 95 percent chance of completion equals how many months? Usin PERT, Adam Munson was able to determine that the expected project completion time for the construction of a pleasure yacht is 24 months, and the project variance is 16. what is the probability that the project will be completed in eight months, what is the probability that the project will be completed in 23 months, what is the probability that the project will be completed in 28 months, what is the probability that the project will be completed in 40 months? The due date that yields a 95 percent chance of completion equals how many months?

Explanation / Answer

T avg = 24 months

Std. Dev = Sq.rt (variance) = sqrt(16) = 4 months

We know z = (T-Tavg) / (Std. Dev.)

i.e. z= (T - 24) / 4

- For T=8 months, z = (8 - 24) / 4 = -4. We need to calculate cumulative probability at z= -4. We can use norm.s.dist function in excel to get the required probability, i.e. NORM.S.DIST(-4,True) which gives a very low value almost equal to zero. So the answer is probability of completing the project in 8 months is almost zero.

- For T = 23 months , z = (23 -24) / 4 = -0.25 . We need to calculate the cumulative probability at z = -0.25. Again using excel we will calculate NORM.S.DIST (-0.25,True) which will give us probability = 0.4013. So the answer is probability of completing the project in 23 months is 40.13%.

- For T = 28 months , z = (28 -24) / 4 = 1 . We need to calculate the cumulative probability at z = 1. Again using excel we will calculate NORM.S.DIST (1,True) which will give us probability = 0.8413. So the answer is probability of completing the project in 28 months is 84.13%.

- For T = 40 months , z = (40 -24) / 4 = 4 . We need to calculate the cumulative probability at z = 4. Again using excel we will calculate NORM.S.DIST (4,True) which will give us probability = 0.99997. So the answer is probability of completing the project in 40 months is almost 100%.

- For cumulative probability of 95%, we will first determine the z value by using the following formula: NORM.S.INV(0.95). This gives z= 1.6448. Then we calculate T using the formula: z= (T - 24) / 4

1.644 = (T - 24) / 4

which gives T = 30.58 months

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