A job completion time follows a triangular distribution and can be accurately es

Question

A job completion time follows a triangular distribution and can be accurately estimated for the project manager. The most likely completion time is 10 days (m), the most optimistic estimate of completiontime is 5 days (a), while the most pessimistic estimate is at 18 days (b).

C1: Compute the Expected completion time for this job.

C2: Determine the probability of completing the job between 3-8 days.

C3: The vendor earns $1,000 for a job completed within 8 days, but loses $250 for any job completed after 8 days. Compute the expected profit/loss for the vendor performing the same job 1000 times.

Explanation / Answer

the expected completion time for this job is calculated by= (To+4Tm+Tp)/6, where To is optimistic time, Tm is most likely time, Tp is pessimistic time.

expecte completion time= (5+4*10+18)/6= 68/6= 11.33 days

the variance of this project is= (18-5/6)2= (13/6)2= 4.67, its standard deviation is 2.16

2.probability of completion of the project in 3 days= 3-11.33/2.16= (-3.85)

3. as already calculated that the time required of this project is 11.33 days, hence it is not possible to complete it in 8 days. so, the vendor gets lossess only in this project

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