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A project has two paths that you are concerned about. The first path (which we w

ID: 363997 • Letter: A

Question

A project has two paths that you are concerned about. The first path (which we will call #1) has an expected path time of 15 weeks and a standard deviation of 3. The second path (#2) has an expected path time of 14 weeks and a standard deviation of 3.4. Which path is critical if the project must be completed within 18 weeks?

Answers possible

Path #2 with a probability of approximately 87%

Path #2 with a probability of approximately 1.12

Path #1 with a probability of approximately 84%

Path #1 with a probability of approximately 97%

Path #1 with a probability of approximately 1

Path #2 with a probability of approximately 80%

Explanation / Answer

Path 1: 50% chance of completion below 15 weeks + 34.1% chance of completion 15 and 18 weeks
= 84.1% chance of completion

Path 2:50% chance of completion below 14 weeks + 34.1% chance of completion below 14 and 17.4 weeks + x% chance of completion 17.4 and 18 weeks
= 84.1 + X% chance of completion ~ 87%

hence, path 2 with a probability of approx 87%

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