The manager of a utity company in the Texas panhandie wants to develop quarterly

Question

The manager of a utity company in the Texas panhandie wants to develop quarterly forecasts of power loads for the next year. The power loads are seasonal, and the data on the quarterly loads in megawalts (Mw) for the last four years are as follows Quarter Year ear 100.5 91.8 117.9 107.3 116.31579 35.1 1421 135.3 169.8 148.6 59.4178.8 169.0 4 160.4 The manager estimates the total demand for the next year at 744 MW. Use the mutiplicative seasonal method to develop the forecast for each quarter. (Round all intermediate calculations to three decimal places The first quarter forecast is 140.0 MW. (Enter your response rounded to one decimal place.) The second quarter forecast isMW. (Enter your response rounded to one decimal place

Explanation / Answer

Multiplicative Seasonal Forecast:

Second Quarter Forecast: 179.1 MW

Third Quarter Forecast: 200.0 MW

Fourth Quarter Forecast: 224.8 MW

Quarter Year 1 Seasonal Forecast 1 Year 2 Seasonal Forecast 2 Year 3 Seasonal Forecast 3 Year 4 Seasonal Forecast 4 Seasonal Forecast 5 Year 5 1 100.5 0.76064333 91.8 0.730165043 117.9 0.755285074 107.3 0.766428571 0.753130505 140.0823 2 125.5 0.949858089 116.3 0.925034798 157.9 1.01153107 135.1 0.965 0.962855989 179.0912 3 142.1 1.075496689 135.4 1.076953669 169.8 1.087764254 148.6 1.061428571 1.075410796 200.0264 4 160.4 1.214001892 159.4 1.26784649 178.8 1.145419603 169 1.207142857 1.208602711 224.8001 Average Forecast 132.125 125.725 156.1 140 186 Forecast for year 5 744

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