The manager of a utlity company in the Texas panhandle wants to develop quarterl

Question

The manager of a utlity company in the Texas panhandle wants to develop quarterly forecasts of power loads for the next year. The power loads are seasonal, and the data on the loads in megawatts (MW) for the last four years are as follows Quarter Yer Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 91.8 1179 107.3 25.5116.3 157.9 135.1 142.1 135.3 169.8 148.6 150.4 178.8 169.0 100.5 160.4 The manager estimates the total demand for the next year at 744 MW Use the multiplicative seasonal method to develop the forecast for each quarter. (Round all intermediate caiculations to three decimal places) The first quarter forecast is MW. (Enter your response rounded to one decimal place.)

Explanation / Answer

Multiplicative Seasonal Forecast:

The First Quarter Forecast for Year 5 by Multiplicative Seasonal Method is 140.08 MW(approx)

Quarter Year 1 Seasonal Forecast 1 Year 2 Seasonal Forecast 2 Year 3 Seasonal Forecast 3 Year 4 Seasonal Forecast 4 Seasonal Forecast 5 Year 5 1 100.5 0.76064333 91.8 0.730165043 117.9 0.755285074 107.3 0.766428571 0.753130505 140.0823 2 125.5 0.949858089 116.3 0.925034798 157.9 1.01153107 135.1 0.965 0.962855989 179.0912 3 142.1 1.075496689 135.4 1.076953669 169.8 1.087764254 148.6 1.061428571 1.075410796 200.0264 4 160.4 1.214001892 159.4 1.26784649 178.8 1.145419603 169 1.207142857 1.208602711 224.8001 Average Forecast 132.125 125.725 156.1 140 186 Forecast for year 5 744

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