The manager of a utility company in the Texas panhandle wants to develop quarter

Question

The manager of a utility company in the Texas panhandle wants to develop quarterty forecasts of power loads for the next year. The power loads are seasonal, and the data on the quarterly loads in megawatts (MW) for the last four years are as follows: Year 3 118.1 Year 4 105.6 Quarter Year 2 Year 1 103.8 125.1 143.5 164.7 150.3 183.9 169.0 93.8 113.8 153.5 135.7 137.6 168.9 157.6 The manager estimates the total demand for the next year at 735 MW. Use the multiplicative seasonal method the forecast for each quarter. (Round all intermediate calculations to three decimal places.) MW. (Enter your response rounded to one decimal place.) The first quarter forecast is The second quarter forecast is The third quarter forecast is The fourth quarter forecast is MW. (Enter your response rounded to one decimal place.) MW. (Enter your response rounded to one decimal place.) MW. (Enter your response rounded to one decimal place.)

Explanation / Answer

Average of all the 4 years = 537.1 + 495.5 + 624.4 + 567.9 / 4 = 2224.9/4 = 556.25

Average demand for next year is estimated to be 735 MW

Which means, 735/556.25 = 1.3213 = 132.13%

Now, calculating the average of all the quarters :

Quarter 1 = 537.1/4 = 134.2

Quarter 2 = 495.5/4 = 123.8

Quarter 3 = 624.4/4 = 156.1

Quarter 4 = 567.9/4 = 141.9

Forecast for Quarter 1 = 134.2 * 132.13 / 100 = 177.31 mw

Forecast for Quarter 2 = 123.8 * 132.13 / 100 = 163.57 mw

Forecast for Quarter 3 = 156.1 * 132.13 / 100 = 206.25 mw

Forecast for Quarter 4 = 141.9 * 132.13/ 100 = 187.49 mw

Quarter Year 1 Year 2 year 3 year 4 1 103.8 93.8 118.1 105.6 2 125.1 113.8 153.5 135.7 3 143.5 137.6 168.9 157.6 4 164.7 150.3 183.9 169.0 Total 537.1 495.5 624.4 567.9

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