4. Being able to detect hostile target prior to an attack is an important task.

Question

4. Being able to detect hostile target prior to an attack is an important task. Given the following probabilities, find the probability of having a target that is hostile (Pr(target is hostile): Pr(target is hostile target is stationary) Pr(target is hostileltarget is moving at low speed) Pr(target is hostile! target is moving at medium speed) Pr(target is hostile!target is moving at high speed) Pr(target is stationary) Pr(target is moving at low speed) 10 5 10 1 3 Pr(target is moving at medium speed) =- Pr(target is moving at high speed 6

Explanation / Answer

Ans:

Let

Target is stationary=A

Target is moving at low speed=B

Target is moving at medium speed=C

Target is moving at high speed=D

Target is hostile=H

P(target is hostile)=P(H)=P(H and A)+P(H and B)+P(H and C)+P(H and D)

=P(H/A)*P(A)+P(H/B)*P(B)+P(H/C)*P(C)+P(H/D)*P(D)

=(1/10)*(1/3)+(1/5)*(1/3)+(1/5)*(1/6)+(3/10)*(1/6)

=(1/30)+(1/15)+(1/30)+(3/60)

=(2+4+2+3)/60=11/60=0.1834

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