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https://youtu.be/-gCQh83oa1Q In the bronze medal game of the 2014 FIBA Asia Cup,

ID: 3334818 • Letter: H

Question

https://youtu.be/-gCQh83oa1Q

In the bronze medal game of the 2014 FIBA Asia Cup, and with his team down by two points, Philippines guard Paul Dalistan was fouled while attempting a three-pointer at the buzzer. He missed the shot and headed to the free throw line for three foul shots. Dalistan's free throw percentage is 84.6. Note: In basketball, free throws or foul shots are unopposed attempts to score points from a restricted area on the court (the free throw line; informally known as the foul line), and are generally awarded after a foul on the shooter by the opposing team worth one point. . Each successful free throw is 1. Watch the video of Dalistan preparing to take his first shot. Before he shoots, what is the probability that .Philippines will win the game? Lose the game? Send it into overtime? 2. Watch the first shot. Based on this, what is the new probability that Philippines will win? Lose Go into overtime? 3. Watch Dalistan's second shot. Now, what are the probabilities that Philippines will win? Lose Go into overtime? 4. When you are done, watch the conclusion of the video to find out what happened. Do you think it was a good decision for China to foul at the buzzer? https://youtu.be/-gCQh83oa1Q

Explanation / Answer

Dalistan's free throw percentage P(Success) = 0.846

Q.1 The score line is telling us that it is PHL : CHINA = 79 : 77

that means it is lagging behind 2 points.

(a) Now, philipines will win the game if he shoots all three free throws correct.

Pr(Philipins win) = 3C3 (0.846)3 = 0.6055

Pr(Philipns will lose) = Philipns will loose if Dalistan will be successful in at most 1 successful free throws

=  3C0 (1- 0.846)3 +  3C1 (1- 0.846)2 (0.846) = 0.0638

Pr(Philipins will draw) = Philipins will draw when he will put 2 successful free throws out of 3

=  3C2 (1- 0.846) 0.8462 = 0.3307

Question2

Now he has taken one successful shot. That means now he needs only 2 out of 2 successful free throws.

Pr(Philipins win) = 2C2 (0.846)3 = 0.7157

Pr(Philipns will lose) = Philipns will loose if Dalistan will be not be successful in next 2 throws.

=  2C0 (1- 0.846)2 = 0.0237

Pr(Philipins will draw) = Philipins will draw when he will put 1 successful free throws out of next 2

= 2C1(1- 0.846) * 0.846 = 0.2606

Question 3. IN this case only one free throw is left and Philipins will win if put it correct and match will be drawn if he is unsucceful

Pr(Philipins will win) = 0.848

Pr(Philipins will losse ) = 0

Pr(Draw) = 1 - 0.848 = 0.152

Queston 4 No, it is a very bad decision for china to foul at buzzer time because it has around more than 60% probability that philipins will win if they get a free throw at that time.