Supply Chain Disruption Getting new products manufactured abroad and then delive

Question

Supply Chain Disruption Getting new products manufactured abroad and then delivered to their final destination in the USA can be a challenging task. One US Company was tired of getting hit with product delays and associated financial costs/penalties. As a result, they culled through their individual records on (1) their foreign manufacturer, (2) their international delivery company, and (3) their domestic delivery company. All three had contributed to product delays at various times in the past. After looking at historical data on actual cases, they discovered the following delays had been observed (relative to promised times). MANUFACTURER INTERNATIONAL DELIVERY DOMESTIC DELIVERY % of Cases 0.75 0.14 0.05 0.02 0.02 0.01 0.01 % of Cases 0.60 0.09 0.08 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.05 % of Cases 0.70 0.14 0.09 0.07 Delav (Weeks Delay (Days Delay (Da 4

Explanation / Answer

A) what is expected total delay in days for new product

Mean= Sum all days/ total number of days

=23 days

Use this probabilities for below questions.

B) Probability of new product's total delay is at least 1 day ?

P(days >=1) = 1-P(days < 1 )

= 1-1/12

= 0.9166

C)Probability of new product's total delay is at least 5 day ?

P(days >=5) =1-P(days <5)

=1-p(days=0)+P(days=1)

=0.83333

D)Probability of new product's total delay is at least 10 day ?   

P(days >=10 ) =1-P(days <10)

=1-p(days=0)+P(days=1)+P(days=5)

=0.75

E)Probability of new product's total delay is at least 15 day ?

P(days >=15 ) =1-P(days <15)

=1-p(days=0)+P(days=1)+P(days=5)+P(days=10)

=0.6666

F) what is the expected cost penlty delay

mean= 8250/12 = 687.5

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

Best of Luck :)

days 0 1 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 probability 1/12 1/12 1/12 1/12 1/12 1/12 1/12 1/12 1/12 1/12 1/12 1/12

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