A simulation model was run and the time that entities spend in the system was de

Question

A simulation model was run and the time that entities spend in the system was determined. The simulation experiment specified a confidence level of 99%. The experiment was run ten times and the output from the simulation indicated the average time in the system is 45.2 minutes with a half width of 5.1 minutes. Given this information, answer the following questions.

a). What is the estimate of the variance (S2) for the time in the system?

b). If the total length of the 99% confidence interval needs to be less than 6 minutes, what is the minimum number of simulations that should be run to guarantee this precision?

Explanation / Answer

for 99% CI, Z =2.5758

and half width =margin of error =5.1 =z*s/(n)1/2  where n =10

hence s =6.26

hence variance =s2 =6.262 =39.202

b) as margin of error =6/2 =3

hence 3 =z*s/(n)1/2

n =(z*s/3)1/2 =28.9

or n=29

hence 29 number of simulations that should be run to guarantee this precision

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