Suppose that it snows in Greenland an average of once every 26 days, and when it

Question

Suppose that it snows in Greenland an average of once every 26 days, and when it does, glaciers have a 30% chance of growing. When it does not snow in Greenland, glaciers have only a 9% chance of growing. What is the probability that it is snowing in Greenland when glaciers are growing? (Round your answer to four decimal places.)

Suppose that it snows in Greenland an average of once every 26 days, and when it does, glaciers have a 30% chance of growing. When it does not snow in Greenland, glaciers have only a 9% chance of growing. What is the probability that it is snowing in Greenland when glaciers are growing? (Round your answer to four decimal places.)

Explanation / Answer

Use simple form of bayes' th. for conditional probability
P[snowing & growing] = 1/26 * 30% = 30/26 %
P[not snowing & growing] = 25/26 * 9% = 225/26 %
P[growing] = sum of above = 255/26 %

P[snowing | growing] = [30/26] / [255/26] = 30/255 = 0.1176

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