A crime has been committed in a town of 100,000 inhabitants. The police are look
ID: 3045270 • Letter: A
Question
A crime has been committed in a town of 100,000 inhabitants. The police are looking for a single perpetrator, believed to live in town. DNA evidencce is found on the crime scene. Kevin's DNA matches the DNA recovered from the crime scene. According to DNA experts, the probability that a random person's DNA matches the crime scene is 1 in 10,000. Before the DNA evidence, Kevin was no more likely to be the guilty person than any other person in town. What is the probability that kevin is guilty after the DNA evidence appeared?
Explanation / Answer
Solution:
Given,
Total number of ihabitants = 100000
probability that a random person's DNA matches the crime scene = 1 / 10000
the total number of possible DNA matches the random person in the town = 100000 * (1 / 10000) = 10
the probability that kevin is guilty after the DNA evidence appeared = 1 / 10 = 0.1
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