A consulting firm submitted a bid for a large research project. The firm\'s mana

Question

A consulting firm submitted a bid for a large research project. The firm's management initially felt they had a 50-50 chance of getting the project. However, the agency to which the bid was submitted subsequently requested additional information on the bid. Past experience indicates that for 74% of the successful bids and 44% of the unsuccessful bids the agency requested additional information.

a.What is the prior probability of the bid being successful (that is, prior to the request for additional information) (to decimal)?

b. What is the conditional probability of a request for additional information given that the bid will ultimately be successful (to  decimals)?

c. Compute the posterior probability that the bid will be successful given a request for additional information (to decimals).

Explanation / Answer

Solution:-

(1)Prior probability = Number of outcomes/Total number of outcomes
= 1/5
= 0.5

(2) Conditional probability = P(A|B) = 0.74%

(3) Posterior probability = P(B|A)
= (P(B)*P(A|B))/P(A)
= (0.5*0.74)/0.59)
= 0.6271

---------------------------

There fore, P(B) = 0.5, P(A|B) = 0.74

P(A) = (P(B)P(A|B))+(P(B')*P(A|B')
= (0.5*0.74)+(0.5*0.44)
= 0.59

Related Questions

Navigate

• Browse (All)
• Browse A
• Subjects

Integrity-first tutoring: explanations and feedback only — we do not complete graded work. Learn more.