A project has four activities (A, B, C, and D) that must be performed sequential
ID: 2745562 • Letter: A
Question
A project has four activities (A, B, C, and D) that must be performed sequentially. The probability distributions for the time required to complete each of the activities are as follows:
A. Provide the base-case, worst-case, and best-case calculations for the time to complete the project.
B. Use the random numbers 0.8634, 0.8928, 0.7531 and 0.7648 to simulate the completion time of the project in weeks.
Activity Activity Time
(weeks)
Probability A 3 0.30 4 0.33 5 0.26 6 0.11 B 7 0.19 9 0.55 11 0.26 C 15 0.10 17 0.22 19 0.44 21 0.20 23 0.04 D 8 0.66 10 0.34
Explanation / Answer
In Base case scenario, time with highest probability is considered.
In Worst case scenario, highest time of completion is considered
In Best case, the lowest time of completion is considered.
Activity
Base case
Worst case
Best case
A
4 weeks
6 weeks
3 weeks
B
9 weeks
11 weeks
7 weeks
C
19 weeks
23 weeks
15 weeks
D
8 weeks
10 weeks
8 weeks
Activity Time
Cumulative
Random Number interval
Activity
(weeks)
Probability
A
3
0.30
0.30
0.00 but less than 0.30
4
0.33
0.63
0.30 but less than 0.63
5
0.26
0.89
0.63 but less than 0.89
6
0.11
1.00
0.89 but less than 1.00
Activity Time
Cumulative
Random Number interval
Activity
(weeks)
Probability
B
7
0.19
0.19
0.00 but less than 0.19
9
0.55
0.74
0.19 but less than 0.74
11
0.26
1.00
0.74 but less than 1.00
Activity
(weeks)
Probability
Cumulative
Random Number interval
C
15
0.10
0.10
0.00 but less than 0.10
17
0.22
0.32
0.10 but less than 0.32
19
0.44
0.76
0.32 but less than 0.76
21
0.20
0.96
0.76 but less than 0.96
23
0.04
1.00
0.96 but less than 1.00
Activity Time
Cumulative
Random Number interval
Activity
(weeks)
Probability
D
8
0.66
0.66
0.00 but less than 0.66
10
0.44
1.0
0.66 but less than 1.00
Activity
Random Number
Completion Time
A
0.8634
5 weeks
B
0.8928
11 weeks
C
0.7531
11 weeks
D
0.7648
10 weeks
Activity
Base case
Worst case
Best case
A
4 weeks
6 weeks
3 weeks
B
9 weeks
11 weeks
7 weeks
C
19 weeks
23 weeks
15 weeks
D
8 weeks
10 weeks
8 weeks
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