A project has four activities (A, B, C, and D) that must be performed sequential
ID: 465890 • Letter: A
Question
A project has four activities (A, B, C, and D) that must be performed sequentially. The probability distributions for the time required to complete each of the activities are as follows:
Provide the base-case, worst-case, and best-case calculations for the time to complete the project.
Use the random numbers 0.6051, 0.7184, 0.2449 and 0.2434 to simulate the completion time of the project in weeks.
Discuss how simulation could be used to estimate the probability that the project can be completed in weeks or less.
Simulation provides a distribution of project completion times. The of times weeks and under can be used to estimate the probability that the project will be completed within weeks.
Activity Activity Time
(weeks)
Probability A 5 0.29 6 0.39 7 0.22 8 0.10 B 4 0.24 6 0.52 8 0.24 C 14 0.08 16 0.20 18 0.35 20 0.23 22 0.14 D 9 0.68 11 0.32
Explanation / Answer
In Base case scenario, time with highest probability is considered.
In Worst case scenario, highest time of completion is considered
In Best case, the lowest time of completion is considered.
Activity
Base case
Worst case
Best case
A
6 weeks
8 weeks
5 weeks
B
6 weeks
8 weeks
4 weeks
C
18 weeks
22 weeks
14 weeks
D
9 weeks
11 weeks
9 weeks
Activity Time
Cumulative
Random Number interval
Activity
(weeks)
Probability
A
5
0.29
0.29
0.00 but less than 0.29
6
0.39
0.68
0.29 but less than 0.68
7
0.22
0.9
0.68 but less than 0.9
8
0.1
1
0.0 but less than 1
B
4
0.24
0.24
0.00 but less than 0.24
6
0.52
0.76
0.24 but less than 0.76
8
0.24
1
0.76 but less than 1
C
14
0.08
0.08
0.00 but less than 0.08
16
0.2
0.28
0.08 but less than 0.28
18
0.35
0.63
0.28 but less than 0.63
20
0.23
0.86
0.63 but less than 0.86
22
0.14
1
0.86 but less than 1
D
9
0.68
0.68
0.00 but less than 0.68
11
0.32
1
0.68 but less than 0.29
Activity
Random Number
Completion Time
A
0.6051
6 weeks
B
0.7184
6 weeks
C
0.2449
16 weeks
D
0.2434
9 weeks
Total
37 weeks
Activity
Base case
Worst case
Best case
A
6 weeks
8 weeks
5 weeks
B
6 weeks
8 weeks
4 weeks
C
18 weeks
22 weeks
14 weeks
D
9 weeks
11 weeks
9 weeks
Related Questions
drjack9650@gmail.com
Navigate
Integrity-first tutoring: explanations and feedback only — we do not complete graded work. Learn more.