A project has four activities (A, B, C, and D) that must be performed sequential
ID: 3244174 • Letter: A
Question
A project has four activities (A, B, C, and D) that must be performed sequentially. The probability distributions for the time required to complete each of the activities are as follows:
Provide the base-case, worst-case, and best-case calculations for the time to complete the project.
Use the random numbers 0.8442, 0.498, 0.8826 and 0.4738 to simulate the completion time of the project in weeks.
Discuss how simulation could be used to estimate the probability that the project can be completed in weeks or less.
Simulation provides a distribution of project completion times. The of times weeks and under can be used to estimate the probability that the project will be completed within weeks.
Activity Activity Time
(weeks)
Probability A 7 0.27 8 0.31 9 0.25 10 0.17 B 3 0.18 5 0.59 7 0.23 C 15 0.14 17 0.23 19 0.36 21 0.19 23 0.08 D 12 0.62 14 0.38
Explanation / Answer
Provide the base-case, worst-case, and best-case calculations for the time to complete the project.
Use the random numbers 0.8442, 0.498, 0.8826 and 0.4738 to simulate the completion time of the project in weeks.
In last problem, number is missing. Fill that number in place of -----.
Simulation will provide a distribution of project completion time values. Calculating the percentage of
simulation trials with completion times of ----- weeks or less can be used to estimate the probability of
meeting the completion time target of ----- weeks.
Activity Base case Worst case Best case A 8 10 7 B 5 7 3 C 19 23 15 D 12 14 12 Total 44 54 37Related Questions
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