Lesson 12 Lab Name __________________________ Since the art & science of weather

Question

Lesson 12 Lab                                               Name __________________________

Since the art & science of weather forecasting is a whole course (or series of courses) in itself, I will not ask you to do any type of weather prediction. However, I would like you to critique the weather predictions made by two weather forecasters of your choice.

Sometime during the early part of the week,

1. Record the two weather forecaster names & organizations (or simply the organizations) of your choice.

2. Record the weather forecasts or outlooks for the next four days. The minimum predicted weather elements should include air temperature, winds, and sky condition, (and precipitation if expected).

3. Conduct a verification analysis of the forecasts. It can be as simple or as complex as you want to make it, but include enough detail to show what you have learned in this course.

4. Report on how accurate you believe the two forecasts were.

In your report, comment on the following:

   - Were the forecasts the same? If different, how much of a difference was there?

   - Was one significantly better than the other?

   - Was the three-day forecast as accurate as the one-day forecast?

   - Has your confidence level in weather forecasts increased, decreased, or stayed the

      same? Explain.

(Be sure to include the proper units for all weather elements you mention in this report).

Explanation / Answer

1.Two weather forecasting organisations are National weather service and World Meteorological organisation. National weather service is an governmental organisation of US responsible for prediction of weather, warning of hazardous weather for the safety, protection and general information to the public. Whereas World Meteorological organisation is an international organisation of US responsible for collecting, analyzing dissemination of meteorological information.

2. Weather forecast for next four days of New York

3-10-2016- Partly cloudy ,Air temperature maximum=75 degree F and minimum= 62 degree F, 20% precipitation, WNW 5 mph Wind speed

4-10-2016- cloudy, Air temperature maximum= 68 degree F and minimum=56 degree F, 20 % precipitation, NE 10 mph wind speed

5-10-2016- sunny, Air temperature maximum= 71 degree F and minimum=55 degree F, 10% precipitation, NE 8 mph wind

6-10-2016- sunny. maximum air temperature=73 degree F and minimum temperature=57 degree F, 10% precipitation, ENE 6 mph wind

3. The weather forecast analyis include the errors in the prediction to the actual observed value. This can be evaluated by preparation of the contingency table which includes succesful events and misses as well as false alarms and false negative. A perfect weather prediction should only includes succesful forecast events and false negative and no false alarms and misses. Besides that it also includes calculation of various parameters like accuracy, bias score, successful forecast events rate, false alarm ratio etc.

succesful forecast events= 82

correct negatives=222

false alarms=38

misses=23

Accuracy= succesful forecast events+ correct negatives/ total

=82+222/365=0.83

Bias= succesful events+ false alarms/ succesful events+ misses

=82+38/82+23=120/105=1.14

sucess rate=succesful events/ successful events+ misses

=82/82+23=82/105=0.78

False alarm rate=false alarm/ succesful events+ false alarms

=38/82+38=38/120=0.31

So the accuracy is 0.81 which implies that the 83% of all forecasts are correct and the ratio of false alarms is 0.31 which means that 1/3 events were recorded in the observation

4.One of the forecasts had accuracy of 0.81 and another of 0.78. So there was a difference of 0.03. So one was slightly better than the other. The one day forecast was more accurate than the 3 days forecast. The confidence level in the 3 days forecast decreased because as far as as we go from the present weather conditions forecasting becomes difficult and we get relatively more inaccurate results.

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