2. Please consider the proved reserves of oil, natural gas, and coal (as of 2015

Question

2. Please consider the proved reserves of oil, natural gas, and coal (as of 2015) and estimate the amount of additional CO2 that would be emitted if all of these proven reserves were consumed as fuel.

Proven Reserves:

How much additional CO2 (in tonnes)would be emitted into the atmosphere without carbon capture and sequestration being implemented?

What concentration of CO2 (in ppm) would be present in the atmosphere under such circumstances?

Estimate the amount of additional forcing (W/m2) that would result from such a concentration, using Arrhenius model.

What temperature rise (K) from current conditions might be expected based on this forcing?

Coal 891531 million tonnes Oil 1697.6 billion barrels Natural Gas 186.9 trillion cubic meters

Explanation / Answer

Since according to the estimates 236 billion tons of oil,187 trillion cubic meter gas, 861 billion tons coal will produce 724, 396, 1667 Gt of CO2.

Since 187 trillion cubic meter gas will produce= 396 Gt CO2

Also since 861 billion tons or 861000 million tons= 1667 Gt CO2

Therefore 891531 million tons=1667/861000*891531

=1726.1GtCO2 = 1726

Since 236 billion tons=724 Gt CO2

We know that there are 7 barrels in 1 metric ton

1697.6 billion barrels =242.5 billion tons

Therefore 242.5 billion tons=724/236*242.5

=743.9 Gt CO2

Total CO2 in tons=396+1726+743.9 Gt=2865.9=2866 Gt of CO2

Therefore 2866 Gt of CO2 will be emitted in the atmosphere

Now Co2 in ppm

For 1ppm CO2=7.76 Gt CO2

Therefore 2866 GtCO2 emission=2866/7.76=369.3ppm of CO2 in atmosphere

Temperature change= forcing * lamba

3=forcing * 0.3

3/0.3=forcing

10W/m2 is the forcing that would result from such concentration

A doubling of CO2 level will increase the temperature of atmosphere by 2 -4.5 degree celsius or 3 degree celsius if taking average

Currently CO2 level =400 ppm

After emission=400+369=769

So the temperture will rise by about 3 degree

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