Dr. Derstler approaches you and tells you that he has a 30-year long dataset of

Question

Dr. Derstler approaches you and tells you that he has a 30-year long dataset of elevation change across the Baton Rouge Fault. He first sampled elevations across the fault system in 1980 and then again in 2010 with no other times of survey between 1980 and 2010. He tells you that the total recorded difference in elevation across the fault was 2m between the 1980 and 2010 sample date. He then proceeds to tell you that the annually averaged rate of elevation change across the fault was 0.06 m during that 30-yr interval of time (2m divided by 30 years). He then argues (vehemently while turning red in the face and pounding his chest) that he fault therefore must have been moving at a rate of 0.06 m per year during each year of the 30 year sample interval. He states further that the fault can be expected to move at that rate of 0.06 m per year for the next 30 years and that in 2040 the total offset since 1980 will therefore be 4 m. Explain whether this is a valid argument. How w

Explanation / Answer

Ans: Dr Drestler finding and data collected showing change in the elevation over the period of 30 years. Interpretation of collected data for difference in elevation has been translated into movement along the Baton Range Fault line.

His argument would be valid. As Baton range fault line is proved to be an active fault line based on several research done and published. As per the USGS research and data it has been established that Baton Rouge fault system is mainly controlled by the subsurface geologic faulting system along the Louisiana coast. This is marked by the presence of underlying thick tertiary basins. In recent past lot of human activity has been imposed. However, the overall impact of this human interference is still unknown.

So there are relations to deeper tectonic activities as well as recent man made encroachment. Hence referring the point and amount of data collected by Dr Drestler needs to be supported by evidence from different angles. The data is collected at interval of 30 years and said location. And this indicate some change. This needs to be analysed and supported by seismic profile of area to understand the behavior of underlying deposit and dating of these deposits would be more accurate in terms of deciphering actual movement.

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