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Question

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1. Explain the three things that are called probability. Which type of probability is being used when someone says, "My knee is acting up; so, it will probably rain"? Which type of probability is being used when a meteorologist says, "There is a 70% chance of rain"?

2. Based on the podcast, do you think there is genuine chance in the world, or do we call something chance just because we are unable to see the physical processes that bring events about? Use quotations from the podcast to support your answer.

Explanation / Answer

1. Theoretical probability: For theoretical reasons, we assume that all n possible outcomes of a particular experiment are equally likely, and we assign a probability of 1/n to each possible outcome.

2. Relative frequency interpretation of probability: Relative Frequency is based on observation. Observations can be of past occurence or maybe repetitive occurence based on something not related.

3. Personal or subjective probability: These are values (between 0 and 1 or 0 and 100%) assigned by individuals based on how likely they think events are to occur.

My knee is acting up; so, it will probably rain - Relative probability

There is a 70% chance of rain - Personal probability

Yes. There is a genuine chance of something or the other to happen in the world. Probability is always an estimation of something to happen or not to happen. This estimation can either be observation based or experimental based. Even though we are able to see the physical processes of the event's occurence there is always a doubt of the outcomes of it. Hence the estimation is done based on the observation of the event.

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