Question 1 Which of the following statements is true regarding the accuracy of a

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Question 1 Which of the following statements is true regarding the accuracy of a good forecasting model? The forecasted residuals should be random The forecasted errors should display a good pattern The forecasted errors should display a trend The forecasted residuals should be large . 5 points Question 2 The data on closing stock prices at the end of the year for all firms listed in S&P 500 is an example of which kind of historical information? time series data judgmental data cross sectional data panel data . 5 points Question 3 Which of the following historical data can be thought as the best leading indicator of the economy? Changes in the GDP Unemployment Rate Inflation Rate Changes in Dow Jones . 5 points Question 4 Forecasting the stock price of Microsoft based only on its historical prices is an example of which kind of forecasting technique? univariate forecasting judgmental forecasting multivariate forecasting qualitative forecasting . 5 points Question 5 The data on daily stock prices of Exxon Mobil for the last one year is an example of which kind of historical information? time series data cross sectional data panel data judgmental data . 5 points Question 6 Use the monthly data (September 2013 - November 2014) provided on the closing prices for Gold (GLD), NASDAQ, Oil (USO) and Facebook (FB). Date GLD NASDAQ USO FB Sep-13 128 3771 37 50 Oct-13 128 3920 35 50 Nov-13 121 4060 33 47 Dec-13 116 4177 35 55 Jan-14 120 4104 35 63 Feb-14 128 4308 37 68 Mar-14 124 4199 37 60 Apr-14 124 4115 36 60 May-14 120 4243 38 63 Jun-14 128 4408 39 67 Jul-14 123 4370 36 73 Aug-14 124 4580 36 75 Sep-14 116 4493 34 79 Oct-14 113 4631 31 75 Nov-14 115 4713 29 74 What is the mean monthly return for NASDAQ during the sample period? 3.12% -0.68% -1.60% 1.64% . 5 points Question 7 Use the monthly data (September 2013 - November 2014) provided on the closing prices for Gold (GLD), NASDAQ, Oil (USO) and Facebook (FB). Date GLD NASDAQ USO FB Sep-13 128 3771 37 50 Oct-13 128 3920 35 50 Nov-13 121 4060 33 47 Dec-13 116 4177 35 55 Jan-14 120 4104 35 63 Feb-14 128 4308 37 68 Mar-14 124 4199 37 60 Apr-14 124 4115 36 60 May-14 120 4243 38 63 Jun-14 128 4408 39 67 Jul-14 123 4370 36 73 Aug-14 124 4580 36 75 Sep-14 116 4493 34 79 Oct-14 113 4631 31 75 Nov-14 115 4713 29 74 What is the risk as measured by the standard deviation of monthly return for Facebook during the sample period? 4.20% 2.80% 7.90% 5.19% . 5 points Question 8 Use the monthly data (September 2013 - November 2014) provided on the closing prices for Gold (GLD), NASDAQ, Oil (USO) and Facebook (FB). Date GLD NASDAQ USO FB Sep-13 128 3771 37 50 Oct-13 128 3920 35 50 Nov-13 121 4060 33 47 Dec-13 116 4177 35 55 Jan-14 120 4104 35 63 Feb-14 128 4308 37 68 Mar-14 124 4199 37 60 Apr-14 124 4115 36 60 May-14 120 4243 38 63 Jun-14 128 4408 39 67 Jul-14 123 4370 36 73 Aug-14 124 4580 36 75 Sep-14 116 4493 34 79 Oct-14 113 4631 31 75 Nov-14 115 4713 29 74 What is the correlation between prices of Gold and Oil during the sample period? -0.44 0.73 -0.54 -0.40 . 5 points Question 9 Use the monthly data (September 2013 - November 2014) provided on the closing prices for Gold (GLD), NASDAQ, Oil (USO) and Facebook (FB). Date GLD NASDAQ USO FB Sep-13 128 3771 37 50 Oct-13 128 3920 35 50 Nov-13 121 4060 33 47 Dec-13 116 4177 35 55 Jan-14 120 4104 35 63 Feb-14 128 4308 37 68 Mar-14 124 4199 37 60 Apr-14 124 4115 36 60 May-14 120 4243 38 63 Jun-14 128 4408 39 67 Jul-14 123 4370 36 73 Aug-14 124 4580 36 75 Sep-14 116 4493 34 79 Oct-14 113 4631 31 75 Nov-14 115 4713 29 74 What is the approximate value of mean absolute error (MAE) of forecasting based on 5 days moving average for GLD prices? 4.10 5.89 4.56 6.08 . 5 points Question 10 Use the monthly data (September 2013 - November 2014) provided on the closing prices for Gold (GLD), NASDAQ, Oil (USO) and Facebook (FB). Date GLD NASDAQ USO FB Sep-13 128 3771 37 50 Oct-13 128 3920 35 50 Nov-13 121 4060 33 47 Dec-13 116 4177 35 55 Jan-14 120 4104 35 63 Feb-14 128 4308 37 68 Mar-14 124 4199 37 60 Apr-14 124 4115 36 60 May-14 120 4243 38 63 Jun-14 128 4408 39 67 Jul-14 123 4370 36 73 Aug-14 124 4580 36 75 Sep-14 116 4493 34 79 Oct-14 113 4631 31 75 Nov-14 115 4713 29 74 What is the approximate value of mean absolute percantage error (MAPE) of forecasting based on 3 days moving average for Facebook prices? 3.81% 3.44% 8.54% 8.74%

Explanation / Answer

Q1 - Forecasted residuals should be randomw, and should not follow any pattern.

Q2. Cross-sectional data

Q3. Changes in Dow Jones. Leading indicators are those which before the economy as a whole changes.

Q4. A. Univariate Forecasting

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