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the table below shows monthly of a motorcycle store during the last two years. T

ID: 454706 • Letter: T

Question

the table below shows monthly of a motorcycle store during the last two years. The commission for each motorcycle sale is 1500. The manager wants to estimate how much money he will need for month 25. month 1 126 month 2 111 month 3 145 month 4 100 month 5 112 month 6 106 month 7 121 month 8 133 month 9 142 month 10 144 month 11 127 month 12 101 month 13 146 month 14 103 month 15 101 month 16 124 month 17 139 month 18 110 month 19 140 month 20 144 month 21 142 month 22 140 month 23 148 month 24 121

a. forcast motorcycle sales and amount of money needed for month 25 using the naive method

b. forecast the motorcycle sales and amount of money needed for month 25 using the MA2

c forecast motorcycle sales and amount of money needed for month 25 using ES with a=0.7

d Forecast motorcycle sales and amount of money needed for month 25 using ES with trend component. (a=0.6) (b=0.4)

e. Which method provides the best forecasting according to MSE

Explanation / Answer

a forecast for sale in 25th month=140+148+121/3=136 units

money needed can not be forecasted as unit cost of motorcycle is not provided.

b.