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Harlen Industries has a simple forecasting model: Take the actual demand for the

ID: 418995 • Letter: H

Question

Harlen Industries has a simple forecasting model: Take the actual demand for the same month last year and divide that by the number of fractional weeks in that month. This gives the average weekly demand for that month. This weekly average is used as the weekly forecast for the same month this year. This technique was used to forecast eight weeks for this year, which are shown below along with the actual demand that occurred.

The following eight weeks show the forecast (based on last year) and the demand that actually occurred:

WEEK

FORECAST
DEMAND

ACTUAL
DEMAND

1

130

127

2

132

123

3

140

145

4

140

155

5

130

175

6

140

165

7

155

180

8

165

200

What is the MAD of forecast errors. (Round your answers to 2 decimal places.)

WEEK

FORECAST
DEMAND

ACTUAL
DEMAND

1

130

127

2

132

123

3

140

145

4

140

155

5

130

175

6

140

165

7

155

180

8

165

200

Explanation / Answer

MAD (Mean Absolute Deviation) = |3 + 9 + 5 + 15 + 45 + 25 + 25 + 35|/8

= 162/8

= 20.25

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