b) Using the 3 year meving average, provide the forecast fhom perlods 4 theough

Question

b) Using the 3 year meving average, provide the forecast fhom perlods 4 theough 12 (round your eponss to one decimal place ) Using the 3 year weighted moving average with weights 0 15 035 and 0 50 uning 0 50 for the most recent perlod, provide the forecast from perlods4 through 12 (round your responses to two decimal placea) nMean abeok te denden f the brecast developed usinghe 36ar moving average is 2 49 andfor the 3-yo" weighted me ingawagels283 " approach Based onthes intormation the beter forecast is achieved using the O Type here to search

Explanation / Answer

b)

Three perioud moving average = Average value of last three period

Forecast of period 4 = (Period 1 + Period 2 + Period 3)/3

Year 4 = (6+10+6)/3 = 7.33

c) Weighted average forecast:

Forecast Period (t+3) = 0.5*Actual (t+2) + 0.35*Actual (t+1) + 0.15*Actual (t)

Forecast for Year 4 = 0.5*6 + 0.35*10 + 0.15*6 = 7.40

d) 3 year moving average as the MAD is lower. So, chance of variation between actual and forecast is minimal

Year Actual (D) Forecast (F) 1 6 2 10 3 6 4 7 7.3 5 11 7.7 6 8 8.0 7 12 8.7 8 13 10.3 9 8 11.0 10 13 11.0 11 6 11.3 12 9.0

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