expert round 1 round 2 round 3 round 4 alfred 1.8 2.2 2.1 2.1 betty 2.5 2.5 2.5
ID: 3853042 • Letter: E
Question
expert round 1 round 2 round 3 round 4
alfred 1.8 2.2 2.1 2.1
betty 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5
charles 2.7 3 2.9 3
coug 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.9
elaine 3.2 3.3 3.2 3.2
freda 3.7 3.5 3.6 3.5
george 4.2 3.4 3.4 3.5
This data was generated by 7 experts who were asked to forecast the percentage growth in GDP over the next 12 months using the Delphi method. At the end of each of 4 rounds, they were asked to justify their forecasts and to provide any additional comments they could think of.
(a) Calculate the round-by-round changes made by each panelist (round 2 minus round 1, etc.) and summarize the changes using the same measures as in (a).
(b) After how many rounds would you have stopped, or would you still continue? why?
Explanation / Answer
a.) The measurement of the rounds done by each expert is as follows:
Expert 1:
So, for expert 1 he/she have done a great job by completing all the rounds because it has gotten stable at the 4th round which was very important to calculate and now the person can note down the GDP which is gross.
Expert 2:
Hence, the expert must have stopped at Round 2 because he/she was getting same values for the GDP and that's the time when he/she should have stopped. It would have resulted in saving the expenses done on the particular round.
Expert 3:
The expert must have carried with the counting of the GDP becuase still there are chances of the change in the GDP which can alter all the readings and maintaining the results will grow the chances of securing the results.
Expert 4:
Hence , the expert must have stopped in the round 2 because the user must note that there are same number of the GDP in both the round 1 and 2 which gives out the straight result that the GDP has grown constant and must go further which would have spared the expenses.
Expert 5:
Hence , the expert has done a great job calculating all the 4 rounds because he/she was trying to score a perfect result for the experiment carried on the GDP and hence, has calculated the perfect value of the GDP by getting the records done.
Expert 6:
The expert must go for further calculation of the rounds until he gets a perfect number for the GDP which is constant and hence, the results would be called as the compromised results. One should grow with the results and go on for furhter calculations.
Expert 7:
The expert must go for further calculation of the rounds until he gets a perfect number for the GDP which is constant and hence, the results would be called as the compromised results. One should grow with the results and go on for furhter calculations.
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