Given the project intormation below, complete the missing entries in the table A
ID: 367633 • Letter: G
Question
Given the project intormation below, complete the missing entries in the table Activity Description Variance Critical? Predecessor Opt. (a) ML. (m) Pess. (b) None None None None 27 30 90 30 47 10 18 24 30 50 100 29 26 19 1 Codify accounts 2 File articles of unification 19 30 72 26 29 30 60 30 3Unify price and credit policy 4 Unify personnel policies 73 25 5Unify data processing 17 30 25 Train accounting staff Pilot run data processin 3.000 x 8 Calculate P & Land balance sheet 6,7 9 Transfer real property 10 Train sales force 11Negotiate with unions 12 Determine capital needs 13 Explain personnel policies 14 Secure line of credit 15 End 15 12 27 35 13 26 35 60 20 6 2 20 25 100 4 40 20 23 16 16 9, 12 10, 13, 14 13Explanation / Answer
Given: According to the project information given the critical path is:
1 -- 5 -- 7 -- 8 -- 12 -- 14 -- 15
Expected duration = Mean = (ta+4tm+tb)/6
Variance = V = 2 = [(tb - ta)/6]2
Standard Deviation = =
With the help of these formulas we can complete the table:
Activity
Predecessor
Opt(a)
ML. (m)
Pess. (b)
te
variance
Critical?
std dev
1
-
16
19
27
19.83333
3.361111
X
1.833333
2
-
30
30
30
30
0
0
3
-
60
72
90
73
25
5
4
-
18
26
30
25.33333
4
2
5
1
17
29
47
30
25
X
5
6
1
4
7
10
7
1
1
7
5
11
15
18
14.83333
1.361111
X
1.166667
8
6,7
6
12
24
13
9
X
3
9
2
18
27
30
26
4
2
10
3
20
35
50
35
25
5
11
4
40
55
100
60
100
10
12
8
11
20
29
20
9
X
3
13
11
14
23
26
22
4
2
14
9,12
13
16
19
16
1
X
1
15
10,13,14
0
0
0
0
0
0
1st ques:
Expected Project Duration: Expected Duration of a Project is computed with the help of critical path and as critical path is mentioned as 1 à 5 à 7 à 8 à 12 à 14 à 15
Expected Duration = Mean of critical path = µcp = 19.8333+30+14.83333+13+20+16 = 113.6667 approximately 114 days.
2nd ques:
What is the probability of completing the project by day 111?
Variance = Variance of critical path = Vcp = 3.361111+25+1.361111+9+9+1 = 48.72222
Standard Deviation = Vcp = 48.7222 = 6.98
Z = Z score
Z = X - µ /
X = # days in question
µ = expected duration
= Standard Deviation
Z = 111 – 114/42
= -0.07143
With the help of Z table (which is available in the internet)
Value of Z = -0.07143 is 0.4761 rounded up to 0.477
Thus, probability of project completing by day 111 is 47.7%
3rd ques:
What is the probability of completing the project within 118?
Variance = Variance of critical path = Vcp = 3.361111+25+1.361111+9+9+1 = 48.72222
Standard Deviation = Vcp = 48.7222 = 6.98
Z = Z score
Z = X - µ /
X = # days in question
µ = expected duration
= Standard Deviation
Z = 118 – 114/42
= 0.095238
With the help of Z table (which is available in the internet)
Value of Z = -0.07143 is 0.5359 rounded up to 0.535
Thus, probability of project completing by day 111 is 53.5%
4th ques:
What is the probability of completing “Negotiate with unions” by day 80?
Variance = Variance of critical path = Vcp = 4+100 = 104
Standard Deviation = Vcp = 104 = 10.19
Z = Z score
Z = X - µ /
X = # days in question
µ = expected duration
= Standard Deviation
Z = 80 – 85.33/10.19
= -0.52298
With the help of Z table (which is available in the internet)
Value of Z = -0.52298 is 0.4801 rounded up to 0.480
Thus, probability of project completing by day 111 is 48%
Activity
Predecessor
Opt(a)
ML. (m)
Pess. (b)
te
variance
Critical?
std dev
1
-
16
19
27
19.83333
3.361111
X
1.833333
2
-
30
30
30
30
0
0
3
-
60
72
90
73
25
5
4
-
18
26
30
25.33333
4
2
5
1
17
29
47
30
25
X
5
6
1
4
7
10
7
1
1
7
5
11
15
18
14.83333
1.361111
X
1.166667
8
6,7
6
12
24
13
9
X
3
9
2
18
27
30
26
4
2
10
3
20
35
50
35
25
5
11
4
40
55
100
60
100
10
12
8
11
20
29
20
9
X
3
13
11
14
23
26
22
4
2
14
9,12
13
16
19
16
1
X
1
15
10,13,14
0
0
0
0
0
0
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