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The manager at a convenience store wants to forecast sales for an item THIS WEEK

ID: 361303 • Letter: T

Question

The manager at a convenience store wants to forecast sales for an item THIS WEEK based on the following historical data: WEEK ACTUAL SALES (Number of units sold)

Six weeks ago 150

Five weeks ago 300

Four weeks ago 450

Three weeks ago 600

Two weeks ago 750

One week ago 900

THIS WEEK NOT KNOWN

Determine the sales forecast for THIS WEEK using exponential smoothing method with smoothing constant, = 0.3 and the sales forecast for two weeks ago = 740 units. Select one:

a. 793.1 units

b. 794.1 units

c. 792.1 units

d. 790.1 units

e. 791.1 units

Explanation / Answer

Formula for Forecast under exponential smoothing :

Ft = alpha x At-1 + ( 1 – alpha) x Ft-1

Ft = Forecast for period t

Ft-1 = Forecast for period t-1

Alpha = Smoothing constant = 0.3

Therefore,

Ft = 0.3 x At-1 + 0.7x Ft-1

Given is:

Forecast for “Three weeks ago” = 550 units

Accordingly forecaast for subsequent weeks and upto this week is given as per above formula “

Period

Actual sales

Forecast

2 weeks ago

750

740

1 week ago

900

743

This week

790.1

SALES FORECAST FOR THIS WEEK : d) 790.1

Period

Actual sales

Forecast

2 weeks ago

750

740

1 week ago

900

743

This week

790.1