The management of an insurance company monitors the number of mistakes made by t

Question

The management of an insurance company monitors the number of mistakes made by telephone service representatives for a company they have subcontracted with the number of mistakes for the past several months appears in this table along with forecasts tor errors made with two different forecasting techniques The column labeled Exponential was created using exponents smoothing with an alpha of 0.30 The column labeled MA is forecast using a moving average of three periods. Using the table above, what is the MAO for months 6 - 10 for the exponential smoothing technique?

Explanation / Answer

for the period of 6 -10

Month(n) Mistakes MA Forecast Error = Actual - forecast Abs(Forecast Error) Cumulative Abs(Forecast Error) MAD = (Cumulative Absolute value of forecast error / n) cumulative forecast error (Forecast error)^2 Cumulative (Forecast Error)^2 MSE = Cumulative (forecast Error)^2 / n 1 55 2 61 3 71 4 77 62.00 15.00 15.00 15.00 3.75 15.00 225.00 225.00 56.25 5 88 70.00 18.00 18.00 33.00 6.60 33.00 324.00 549.00 109.80 6 100 79.00 21.00 21.00 54.00 9.00 54.00 441.00 990.00 165.00 7 109 88.00 21.00 21.00 75.00 10.71 75.00 441.00 1431.00 204.43 8 122 99.00 23.00 23.00 98.00 12.25 98.00 529.00 1960.00 245.00 9 126 110.00 16.00 16.00 114.00 12.67 114.00 256.00 2216.00 246.22 10 126 119.00 7.00 7.00 121.00 12.10 121.00 49.00 2265.00 226.50

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