Hello, I need help with this problem. Mosly because of the computing periods 2-1

Question

Hello, I need help with this problem. Mosly because of the computing periods 2-15 with no past data before period 2, and so on.

1.Compute forecasts for periods 2 through 15 using exponential smoothing with a = 0.2. Assume a forecast of 100 units for period 1.

2.Compute forecasts for periods 2 through 15 using exponential smoothing with a = 0.8. Assume a forecast of 100 units for period 1.

3.How do these two sets of forecasts compare in terms of accuracy? Compute (i) the Mean Error (bias), (ii) Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD) and (iii) the Mean Absolute Percent Deviation (MAPD). What are these measures are telling you?

US Index of Industrial Production 100 (Assumption) Period 108 110 106 108 108 105 100 97 95 95 92 95 95 98 2 3 4. 5 10 12 13 14 15

Explanation / Answer

these measure indicate that forcast with exponential smothing of 0.8 results in less error and deviation

exponential constant 0.2 0.8 Actual A Forcast F Error Absolute Error C=(A-B)/A absolute of C 1 100 100 2 108 100.00 8.00 8.00 0.07 0.07 3 110 101.60 8.40 8.40 0.08 0.08 4 106 103.28 2.72 2.72 0.03 0.03 5 108 103.82 4.18 4.18 0.04 0.04 6 108 104.66 3.34 3.34 0.03 0.03 7 105 105.33 -0.33 0.33 0.00 0.00 8 100 105.26 -5.26 5.26 -0.05 0.05 9 97 104.21 -7.21 7.21 -0.07 0.07 10 95 102.77 -7.77 7.77 -0.08 0.08 11 95 101.21 -6.21 6.21 -0.07 0.07 12 92 99.97 -7.97 7.97 -0.09 0.09 13 95 98.38 -3.38 3.38 -0.04 0.04 14 95 97.70 -2.70 2.70 -0.03 0.03 15 98 97.16 0.84 0.84 0.01 0.01 -13.35 68.31 -0.17 0.68 14 Mean Error -0.953917173057851 MAD 4.87899004530104 MAPD 0.048723094458081 exponential constant 0.8 0.2 Actual A Forcast F Error Absolute Error C=(A-B)/A absolute of C 1 100 100 2 108 100.00 8.00 8.00 0.07 0.07 3 110 106.40 3.60 3.60 0.03 0.03 4 106 109.28 -3.28 3.28 -0.03 0.03 5 108 106.66 1.34 1.34 0.01 0.01 6 108 107.73 0.27 0.27 0.00 0.00 7 105 107.95 -2.95 2.95 -0.03 0.03 8 100 105.59 -5.59 5.59 -0.06 0.06 9 97 101.12 -4.12 4.12 -0.04 0.04 10 95 97.82 -2.82 2.82 -0.03 0.03 11 95 95.56 -0.56 0.56 -0.01 0.01 12 92 95.11 -3.11 3.11 -0.03 0.03 13 95 92.62 2.38 2.38 0.03 0.03 14 95 94.52 0.48 0.48 0.01 0.01 15 98 94.90 3.10 3.10 0.03 0.03 -3.27 41.60 -0.04 0.41 14 Mean Error -0.233841008171889 MAD 2.97109674908526 MAPD 0.029299828641969

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