1. Given: The last four pair of Nike sneakers that I have purchased have been co

Question

1. Given: The last four pair of Nike sneakers that I have purchased have been comfortable.

The conclusion with the highest probability is:

a) All Nike sneakers are comfortable

b) All sneakers are comfortable

c) My next pair of Nike sneakers will be comfortable

d) My next pair of shoes will be Nike

2. Pastor Pete: People are turning to God everywhere! 9 out of 10 people I interviewed said that they had a personal relationship with Jesus Christ.

Fred: Where did you find these people you interviewed?

Pastor Pete: In my church.

Mike: "Hmmm. You have a point there."

a) Questionable statistics

b) Apeal to ignorance

c) Sample size is unrepresentative

d) No margin of error given

3. Given: The last Gallup Poll in October 2012 revealed that 52% of its sample covering the U.S. will vote for Obama. There was a 3% margin of error.

According to this poll, which of the following would be the most probable?

a) 52% of the U.S. will vote for Obama

b) 49-55% of the U.S. will not vote for Obama

c) 48% of the U.S. will vote for someone else

d) 49-55% of the U.S. will vote for Obama

4. Why should the government regulate and restrict the rates charged by the utility companies? Utility companies should be free to set their rates as they wish. After all, if you open a restaurant, you are free to charge your customers whatever you wish for a hamburger. Similarly, utility companies should also be free to charge whatever they want, without any government regulation.

The analogy presented is:

a) weak

b) strong

5. Which one of the following types of polls is the least likeliest to be a valid poll?

a) a push poll

b) a poll whose sample is the soldiers in the U.S. military

c) a poll using a stratified random sample

d) an exit poll taken after a voter leaves a polling place

Explanation / Answer

1. Option d (My next pair of shoes will be Nike) – It is because I’m so far comfortable with Nike and according to human tendency, unless and until one is not satisfied with the existing thing, one will continue with the same.

2. Option c (Sample size is unpresentable) – Pastor Pete interviewed only people who come to his church and there are numerous people of this generation out there who would like to use their rationale and go beyond God. So the population represented is not justified.

3. Option d (49-55% of the U.S will vote for Obama) – The poll says it is 52% but there is a plus or minus 3% which when added up will be 55% and when deducted will be 49%. So the possibility is between the least number 49% and the highest number 55%.

4. Option a (Weak) – Utilities are basics without which people won’t be able to run their households, whereas, eating out is optional. People can even cook at home and eat. Eating out is for a small portion of people in that particular location whereas, the utilities are provided by big companies throughout the country.

5. Option d (an exit poll taken after a voter leaves a polling place) – It’s because the poll is not going to have any effect on the outcome as people have already voted. The decision is taken and the same can’t be reversed.

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