A fair coin is flipped 100 times. The first 50 flips result in “heads”. The next

Question

A fair coin is flipped 100 times. The first 50 flips result in “heads”. The next 49 flips result in “tails”. What is the probability that the next and final flip is a tail? A fair coin is flipped 100 times. The first 50 flips result in “heads”. The next 49 flips result in “tails”. What is the probability that the next and final flip is a tail? A fair coin is flipped 100 times. The first 50 flips result in “heads”. The next 49 flips result in “tails”. What is the probability that the next and final flip is a tail?

Explanation / Answer

Historically, we had 99 flips, of which, 49 are tails.

Thus, historically, we belive that the 100th toss would be tails with a probability of

P(100th is a tail) = 49/99 [ANSWER]

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