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dit View History BookmarksWindow Help webwork.georgi MATHEMATICAL ASSOCIATION OF AMERICA webwork/wardsta1223 112017 /homework 16/1 Homework 16: Problem 1 ork 16 Problem Ust Next (1 point) You ask a neighbor to water a sickly plant while you are on vacation. Without water the plant will die with probability 075, with water n wil de with probabity05. You are 80 % certain the neighbor wil remember to water the plant. When you are on vacation, find the probability that the plant will die. You come back from the vacation and the plant is dead. What is the probability the neighbor forgot to water it? Hint: it may help to ll in a table lks this one Plant lives Plant dies Total Neighbor remembers Neighbor forgets Total 5

Explanation / Answer

Ans:

Given that

P(die/with water)=0.5

P(die/without water)=0.75

P(with water)=0.8 i.e. neighbour remember to water the plants with 80% certainity

P(without water)=1-0.8=0.2

P(die)=P(die/with water)*P(with water)+P(die/without water)*P(without water)

=0.5*0.8+0.75*0.2

=0.4+0.15

=0.55

P(without water/died)=P(die/wthout water)*P(without water)/P(die)

=0.75*0.2/0.55

=0.15/0.55=3/11

=0.273

live dead Total remembers 0.4 0.4 0.8 forgets 0.05 0.15 0.2 Total 0.45 0.55 1

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