Problem The Lake Placid Town Council decided to build a new community center to

Question

Problem The Lake Placid Town Council decided to build a new community center to be used for conventions, concerts, and other public events, but considerable controversy surrounds the appropriate size. Many influential citizens want a large center that would be a showcase for the area. But the mayor feels that if demand does not support such a center, the community will lose a large amount of money. To provide structure for the decision process, the council narrowed the building alternatives to three sizes: small, medium, andlarge. Everybody agreed that the critical factor in choosing the best size is the number of people who will want to use the new facility. A regional planning consultant provided demand estimates under three scenarios: worst case, base case, and best case. The worst-case scenario corresponds to a situation in which tourism drops substantially; the base-case scenario corresponds to a situation in which Lake Placid continues to attract visitors at current levels; and the best-case scenario corresponds to a substantial increase in tourism. The consultant has provided probability assessments of 0.10, 0.60, and 0.30 for the worstcase, base case, and best-case scenarios, respectively The town council suggested using net cash flow over a 5-year planning horizon as the criterion for deciding on the best size. The following projections of net cash flow (in thousands of dollars) for a five-year planning horizon have been developed. All costs, including the consultant's fee have been included. Center Size Small Medium Large Demand Scenario Base Case 500 650 580 Worst Case 400 250 -400 Best Case 660 800 990 a. What decision should Lake Placid make using the expected value approach? b. Construct risk profiles for the medium and large alternatives. given the mayor's concern over the possibility of losing money and the result of part a, which alternative would you recommend? C. Compute the expected value of perfect information. Do you think it would be worth trying to obtain additional information concerning which scenario is likely to occur?

Explanation / Answer

a)

Hence using expected value approach, town council should opt for either Medium or Large center sizes.

b)

Constructing regret table, we should be good using Large center size because the regret is lower.

c)

EVPI=EVwPI-EVwoPI (Maximum EV)

EVwPI=400*0.1+650*0.6+990*0.3= 727

EVwoPI (Maximum EV)= 605

EVPI=727-605

EVPI=122

As the expected value of perfect information is positive, it would be worth trying to obtain additional information concerning which scenario is likely to occur.

Center Size Worst Case Base Case Best Case EV_Calc EV Small 400 500 660 0.1*400+0.6*500+0.3*660 538 Medium -250 650 800 0.1*-250+0.6*650+0.3*800 605 Large -400 580 990 0.1*-400+0.6*580+0.3*990 605

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