The closing value of the AMEX Airline Index for each trading day for a one-year

Question

The closing value of the AMEX Airline Index for each trading day for a one-year period is given in the file P12_17.xlsx (above data).

Q: Using the more appropriate span, forecast the closing value of this index on the next trading day with the moving average method. (Round your answer to two decimal places.)

Day Airline Index 1 54.02 2 54.75 3 55.27 4 55.80 5 56.01 6 57.96 7 60.15 8 59.29 9 58.71 10 60.05 11 60.45 12 61.18 13 61.79 14 62.16 15 61.54 16 61.65 17 62.21 18 62.18 19 62.69 20 61.53 21 60.96 22 62.16 23 61.54 24 61.94 25 62.45 26 61.77 27 60.23 28 60.33 29 61.18 30 62.48 31 63.02 32 62.73 33 63.58 34 64.95 35 64.93 36 65.30 37 66.41 38 65.97 39 67.16 40 66.82 41 67.04 42 67.35 43 67.29 44 66.79 45 67.52 46 68.30 47 68.25 48 67.75 49 66.12 50 67.13 51 67.29 52 67.89 53 67.96 54 68.34 55 68.75 56 68.55 57 68.10 58 67.58 59 68.25 60 69.43 61 70.69 62 70.37 63 71.34 64 70.60 65 69.56 66 68.09 67 67.43 68 67.18 69 67.55 70 68.49 71 68.23 72 67.59 73 68.49 74 68.72 75 68.94 76 67.63 77 68.03 78 68.12 79 69.46 80 69.36 81 69.53 82 69.58 83 68.55 84 69.23 85 69.75 86 69.45 87 72.13 88 71.08 89 71.21 90 72.34 91 73.17 92 74.18 93 73.14 94 74.66 95 74.56 96 74.74 97 74.43 98 75.23 99 76.93 100 75.49 101 73.03 102 71.45 103 72.46 104 70.84 105 71.45 106 70.59 107 68.54 108 69.30 109 69.29 110 70.80 111 71.90 112 71.41 113 71.67 114 71.47 115 72.37 116 73.09 117 72.19 118 71.98 119 74.15 120 75.04 121 75.75 122 76.50 123 76.65 124 77.19 125 76.92 126 76.12 127 77.78 128 78.12 129 79.28 130 78.99 131 78.92 132 78.31 133 77.88 134 76.84 135 77.14 136 78.43 137 79.44 138 78.91 139 78.82 140 77.65 141 78.15 142 79.43 143 78.30 144 77.47 145 77.64 146 79.67 147 81.51 148 82.35 149 82.12 150 80.27 151 79.42 152 79.16 153 81.24 154 78.99 155 77.50 156 76.57 157 76.77 158 78.88 159 78.62 160 78.98 161 79.67 162 80.81 163 80.77 164 78.83 165 77.84 166 78.78 167 79.04 168 80.48 169 80.81 170 80.57 171 80.15 172 80.53 173 80.65 174 80.60 175 83.02 176 82.90 177 81.43 178 80.75 179 80.37 180 82.16 181 80.90 182 81.59 183 82.34 184 83.39 185 83.99 186 85.15 187 85.40 188 84.92 189 85.50 190 85.74 191 86.09 192 86.58 193 88.28 194 88.18 195 88.00 196 85.99 197 83.37 198 83.99 199 83.08 200 84.03 201 84.76 202 85.37 203 85.65 204 84.84 205 84.10 206 84.93 207 84.87 208 85.42 209 85.01 210 87.04 211 85.01 212 85.49 213 83.53 214 83.28 215 84.29 216 85.62 217 86.25 218 86.13 219 86.91 220 86.40 221 84.06 222 85.37 223 84.82 224 85.55 225 87.86 226 85.85 227 86.61 228 86.11 229 85.29 230 85.27 231 83.67 232 83.89 233 83.37 234 82.13 235 82.08 236 80.54 237 81.58 238 82.72 239 82.22 240 83.11 241 84.25 242 84.50 243 86.92 244 86.99 245 87.87 246 86.81 247 87.34 248 87.39 249 86.72 250 86.72 251 86.33 252 85.98 253 88.57 254 87.54 255 87.89 256 88.07 257 88.04 258 86.97 259 88.06 260 87.66 261 86.90 262 85.15 263 85.78 264 85.29 265 86.63 266 85.93 267 84.00 268 82.82 269 83.07 270 81.76 271 82.31 272 80.74 273 80.64 274 78.15 275 79.02 276 81.49 277 80.93 278 79.12 279 77.80 280 76.56 281 74.65 282 72.59 283 75.30 284 74.82 285 76.45 286 76.46 287 79.17 288 81.84 289 81.20 290 82.34 291 83.99 292 84.88 293 87.43 294 86.58 295 87.43 296 89.95 297 90.96 298 93.79 299 92.57 300 93.35 301 92.46 302 93.83 303 94.07 304 93.44 305 93.53 306 92.56 307 91.70 308 93.78 309 93.09 310 92.70 311 92.57 312 93.81 313 94.40 314 94.72 315 98.44 316 96.64 317 96.43 318 97.02 319 98.72 320 99.90 321 99.72 322 96.46 323 96.58 324 97.75 325 96.12 326 95.87 327 92.56 328 95.13 329 97.53 330 98.00 331 98.98 332 98.36 333 100.26 334 101.20 335 101.87 336 103.17 337 104.18 338 103.20 339 101.52 340 99.54 341 100.19 342 101.76 343 99.97 344 99.75 345 100.53 346 99.06 347 99.24 348 100.23 349 103.34 350 103.52 351 107.51 352 107.30 353 108.10 354 106.89 355 104.58 356 107.58 357 101.49 358 100.78 359 100.06 360 102.29 361 102.10 362 101.14 363 98.34 364 100.18 365 99.78 366 100.45 367 101.06 368 99.72 369 100.97 370 101.26 371 102.86 372 103.61 373 105.34 374 102.16 375 102.63 376 100.81 377 101.92 378 102.68 379 101.96 380 101.71 381 99.98 382 99.48 383 97.93 384 98.70 385 100.83 386 100.87 387 102.24 388 103.84 389 104.26 390 105.04 391 105.70 392 104.78 393 104.91 394 101.64 395 100.01 396 102.23 397 102.47 398 101.76 399 99.52 400 97.90 401 97.74 402 98.10 403 100.44 404 100.14 405 100.18 406 100.44 407 100.00 408 99.85 409 100.74 410 99.93 411 101.78 412 103.19 413 103.18 414 103.13 415 105.14 416 104.88 417 104.65 418 101.69 419 100.38 420 103.12 421 101.86 422 100.32 423 99.67 424 100.94 425 102.05 426 102.21 427 101.28 428 100.45 429 101.71 430 102.17 431 102.12 432 101.00 433 96.36 434 95.74 435 95.47 436 93.18 437 95.13 438 94.45 439 94.81 440 96.21 441 95.78 442 96.37 443 95.57 444 95.76 445 92.89 446 92.01 447 92.97 448 93.42 449 94.43 450 93.18 451 92.89 452 92.94 453 94.75 454 95.72 455 97.95 456 98.09 457 97.54 458 97.24 459 95.96 460 92.57 461 93.99 462 92.55 463 92.46 464 91.85 465 92.38 466 90.40 467 91.85 468 95.03 469 97.33 470 96.62 471 95.93 472 96.39 473 96.75 474 95.22 475 96.20 476 96.01 477 95.64 478 93.01 479 89.73 480 90.63 481 91.34 482 90.99 483 92.84 484 94.26 485 95.06 486 95.25 487 93.94 488 93.41 489 94.31 490 94.09 491 93.03 492 92.70 493 92.11 494 93.31 495 92.04 496 91.28 497 88.67 498 85.53 499 81.84 500 81.78 501 82.62 502 83.97 503 83.94 504 83.63 505 82.09 506 85.06 507 84.53 508 85.12

Explanation / Answer

The 3 years moving averages are calculated as follows

Day Airline Index 3 years moving average 1 54.02 2 54.75 3 55.27 4 55.8 54.68 5 56.01 55.27 6 57.96 55.69 7 60.15 56.59 8 59.29 58.04 9 58.71 59.13 10 60.05 59.38 11 60.45 59.35 12 61.18 59.74 13 61.79 60.56 14 62.16 61.14 15 61.54 61.71 16 61.65 61.83 17 62.21 61.78 18 62.18 61.8 19 62.69 62.01 20 61.53 62.36 21 60.96 62.13 22 62.16 61.73 23 61.54 61.55 24 61.94 61.55 25 62.45 61.88 26 61.77 61.98 27 60.23 62.05 28 60.33 61.48 29 61.18 60.78 30 62.48 60.58 31 63.02 61.33 32 62.73 62.23 33 63.58 62.74 34 64.95 63.11 35 64.93 63.75 36 65.3 64.49 37 66.41 65.06 38 65.97 65.55 39 67.16 65.89 40 66.82 66.51 41 67.04 66.65 42 67.35 67.01 43 67.29 67.07 44 66.79 67.23 45 67.52 67.14 46 68.3 67.2 47 68.25 67.54 48 67.75 68.02 49 66.12 68.1 50 67.13 67.37 51 67.29 67 52 67.89 66.85 53 67.96 67.44 54 68.34 67.71 55 68.75 68.06 56 68.55 68.35 57 68.1 68.55 58 67.58 68.47 59 68.25 68.08 60 69.43 67.98 61 70.69 68.42 62 70.37 69.46 63 71.34 70.16 64 70.6 70.8 65 69.56 70.77 66 68.09 70.5 67 67.43 69.42 68 67.18 68.36 69 67.55 67.57 70 68.49 67.39 71 68.23 67.74 72 67.59 68.09 73 68.49 68.1 74 68.72 68.1 75 68.94 68.27 76 67.63 68.72 77 68.03 68.43 78 68.12 68.2 79 69.46 67.93 80 69.36 68.54 81 69.53 68.98 82 69.58 69.45 83 68.55 69.49 84 69.23 69.22 85 69.75 69.12 86 69.45 69.18 87 72.13 69.48 88 71.08 70.44 89 71.21 70.89 90 72.34 71.47 91 73.17 71.54 92 74.18 72.24 93 73.14 73.23 94 74.66 73.5 95 74.56 73.99 96 74.74 74.12 97 74.43 74.65 98 75.23 74.58 99 76.93 74.8 100 75.49 75.53 101 73.03 75.88 102 71.45 75.15 103 72.46 73.32 104 70.84 72.31 105 71.45 71.58 106 70.59 71.58 107 68.54 70.96 108 69.3 70.19 109 69.29 69.48 110 70.8 69.04 111 71.9 69.8 112 71.41 70.66 113 71.67 71.37 114 71.47 71.66 115 72.37 71.52 116 73.09 71.84 117 72.19 72.31 118 71.98 72.55 119 74.15 72.42 120 75.04 72.77 121 75.75 73.72 122 76.5 74.98 123 76.65 75.76 124 77.19 76.3 125 76.92 76.78 126 76.12 76.92 127 77.78 76.74 128 78.12 76.94 129 79.28 77.34 130 78.99 78.39 131 78.92 78.8 132 78.31 79.06 133 77.88 78.74 134 76.84 78.37 135 77.14 77.68 136 78.43 77.29 137 79.44 77.47 138 78.91 78.34 139 78.82 78.93 140 77.65 79.06 141 78.15 78.46 142 79.43 78.21 143 78.3 78.41 144 77.47 78.63 145 77.64 78.4 146 79.67 77.8 147 81.51 78.26 148 82.35 79.61 149 82.12 81.18 150 80.27 81.99 151 79.42 81.58 152 79.16 80.6 153 81.24 79.62 154 78.99 79.94 155 77.5 79.8 156 76.57 79.24 157 76.77 77.69 158 78.88 76.95 159 78.62 77.41 160 78.98 78.09 161 79.67 78.83 162 80.81 79.09 163 80.77 79.82 164 78.83 80.42 165 77.84 80.14 166 78.78 79.15 167 79.04 78.48 168 80.48 78.55 169 80.81 79.43 170 80.57 80.11 171 80.15 80.62 172 80.53 80.51 173 80.65 80.42 174 80.6 80.44 175 83.02 80.59 176 82.9 81.42 177 81.43 82.17 178 80.75 82.45 179 80.37 81.69 180 82.16 80.85 181 80.9 81.09 182 81.59 81.14 183 82.34 81.55 184 83.39 81.61 185 83.99 82.44 186 85.15 83.24 187 85.4 84.18 188 84.92 84.85 189 85.5 85.16 190 85.74 85.27 191 86.09 85.39 192 86.58 85.78 193 88.28 86.14 194 88.18 86.98 195 88 87.68 196 85.99 88.15 197 83.37 87.39 198 83.99 85.79 199 83.08 84.45 200 84.03 83.48 201 84.76 83.7 202 85.37 83.96 203 85.65 84.72 204 84.84 85.26 205 84.1 85.29 206 84.93 84.86 207 84.87 84.62 208 85.42 84.63 209 85.01 85.07 210 87.04 85.1 211 85.01 85.82 212 85.49 85.69 213 83.53 85.85 214 83.28 84.68 215 84.29 84.1 216 85.62 83.7 217 86.25 84.4 218 86.13 85.39 219 86.91 86 220 86.4 86.43 221 84.06 86.48 222 85.37 85.79 223 84.82 85.28 224 85.55 84.75 225 87.86 85.25 226 85.85 86.08 227 86.61 86.42 228 86.11 86.77 229 85.29 86.19 230 85.27 86 231 83.67 85.56 232 83.89 84.74 233 83.37 84.28 234 82.13 83.64 235 82.08 83.13 236 80.54 82.53 237 81.58 81.58 238 82.72 81.4 239 82.22 81.61 240 83.11 82.17 241 84.25 82.68 242 84.5 83.19 243 86.92 83.95 244 86.99 85.22 245 87.87 86.14 246 86.81 87.26 247 87.34 87.22 248 87.39 87.34 249 86.72 87.18 250 86.72 87.15 251 86.33 86.94 252 85.98 86.59 253 88.57 86.34 254 87.54 86.96 255 87.89 87.36 256 88.07 88 257 88.04 87.83 258 86.97 88 259 88.06 87.69 260 87.66 87.69 261 86.9 87.56 262 85.15 87.54 263 85.78 86.57 264 85.29 85.94 265 86.63 85.41 266 85.93 85.9 267 84 85.95 268 82.82 85.52 269 83.07 84.25 270 81.76 83.3 271 82.31 82.55 272 80.74 82.38 273 80.64 81.6 274 78.15 81.23 275 79.02 79.84 276 81.49 79.27 277 80.93 79.55 278 79.12 80.48 279 77.8 80.51 280 76.56 79.28 281 74.65 77.83 282 72.59 76.34 283 75.3 74.6 284 74.82 74.18 285 76.45 74.24 286 76.46 75.52 287 79.17 75.91 288 81.84 77.36 289 81.2 79.16 290 82.34 80.74 291 83.99 81.79 292 84.88 82.51 293 87.43 83.74 294 86.58 85.43 295 87.43 86.3 296 89.95 87.15 297 90.96 87.99 298 93.79 89.45 299 92.57 91.57 300 93.35 92.44 301 92.46 93.24 302 93.83 92.79 303 94.07 93.21 304 93.44 93.45 305 93.53 93.78 306 92.56 93.68 307 91.7 93.18 308 93.78 92.6 309 93.09 92.68 310 92.7 92.86 311 92.57 93.19 312 93.81 92.79 313 94.4 93.03 314 94.72 93.59 315 98.44 94.31 316 96.64 95.85 317 96.43 96.6 318 97.02 97.17 319 98.72 96.7 320 99.9 97.39 321 99.72 98.55 322 96.46 99.45 323 96.58 98.69 324 97.75 97.59 325 96.12 96.93 326 95.87 96.82 327 92.56 96.58 328 95.13 94.85 329 97.53 94.52 330 98 95.07 331 98.98 96.89 332 98.36 98.17 333 100.26 98.45 334 101.2 99.2 335 101.87 99.94 336 103.17 101.11 337 104.18 102.08 338 103.2 103.07 339 101.52 103.52 340 99.54 102.97 341 100.19 101.42 342 101.76 100.42 343 99.97 100.5 344 99.75 100.64 345 100.53 100.49 346 99.06 100.08 347 99.24 99.78 348 100.23 99.61 349 103.34 99.51 350 103.52 100.94 351 107.51 102.36 352 107.3 104.79 353 108.1 106.11 354 106.89 107.64 355 104.58 107.43 356 107.58 106.52 357 101.49 106.35 358 100.78 104.55 359 100.06 103.28 360 102.29 100.78 361 102.1 101.04 362 101.14 101.48 363 98.34 101.84 364 100.18 100.53 365 99.78 99.89 366 100.45 99.43 367 101.06 100.14 368 99.72 100.43 369 100.97 100.41 370 101.26 100.58 371 102.86 100.65 372 103.61 101.7 373 105.34 102.58 374 102.16 103.94 375 102.63 103.7 376 100.81 103.38 377 101.92 101.87 378 102.68 101.79 379 101.96 101.8 380 101.71 102.19 381 99.98 102.12 382 99.48 101.22 383 97.93 100.39 384 98.7 99.13 385 100.83 98.7 386 100.87 99.15 387 102.24 100.13 388 103.84 101.31 389 104.26 102.32 390 105.04 103.45 391 105.7 104.38 392 104.78 105 393 104.91 105.17 394 101.64 105.13 395 100.01 103.78 396 102.23 102.19 397 102.47 101.29 398 101.76 101.57 399 99.52 102.15 400 97.9 101.25 401 97.74 99.73 402 98.1 98.39 403 100.44 97.91 404 100.14 98.76 405 100.18 99.56 406 100.44 100.25 407 100 100.25 408 99.85 100.21 409 100.74 100.1 410 99.93 100.2 411 101.78 100.17 412 103.19 100.82 413 103.18 101.63 414 103.13 102.72 415 105.14 103.17 416 104.88 103.82 417 104.65 104.38 418 101.69 104.89 419 100.38 103.74 420 103.12 102.24 421 101.86 101.73 422 100.32 101.79 423 99.67 101.77 424 100.94 100.62 425 102.05 100.31 426 102.21 100.89 427 101.28 101.73 428 100.45 101.85 429 101.71 101.31 430 102.17 101.15 431 102.12 101.44 432 101 102 433 96.36 101.76 434 95.74 99.83 435 95.47 97.7 436 93.18 95.86 437 95.13 94.8 438 94.45 94.59 439 94.81 94.25 440 96.21 94.8 441 95.78 95.16 442 96.37 95.6 443 95.57 96.12 444 95.76 95.91 445 92.89 95.9 446 92.01 94.74 447 92.97 93.55 448 93.42 92.62 449 94.43 92.8 450 93.18 93.61 451 92.89 93.68 452 92.94 93.5 453 94.75 93 454 95.72 93.53 455 97.95 94.47 456 98.09 96.14 457 97.54 97.25 458 97.24 97.86 459 95.96 97.62 460 92.57 96.91 461 93.99 95.26 462 92.55 94.17 463 92.46 93.04 464 91.85 93 465 92.38 92.29 466 90.4 92.23 467 91.85 91.54 468 95.03 91.54 469 97.33 92.43 470 96.62 94.74 471 95.93 96.33 472 96.39 96.63 473 96.75 96.31 474 95.22 96.36 475 96.2 96.12 476 96.01 96.06 477 95.64 95.81 478 93.01 95.95 479 89.73 94.89 480 90.63 92.79 481 91.34 91.12 482 90.99 90.57 483 92.84 90.99 484 94.26 91.72 485 95.06 92.7 486 95.25 94.05 487 93.94 94.86 488 93.41 94.75 489 94.31 94.2 490 94.09 93.89 491 93.03 93.94 492 92.7 93.81 493 92.11 93.27 494 93.31 92.61 495 92.04 92.71 496 91.28 92.49 497 88.67 92.21 498 85.53 90.66 499 81.84 88.49 500 81.78 85.35 501 82.62 83.05 502 83.97 82.08 503 83.94 82.79 504 83.63 83.51 505 82.09 83.85 506 85.06 83.22 507 84.53 83.59 508 85.12 83.89

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