Two operators are working together in the buddy system. One is maneuvering a for

Question

Two operators are working together in the buddy system. One is maneuvering a forklift to load/unload product from the end of the aisle in a large warehouse and the other is responsible for cordoning off the area and preventing traffic in the lane while the forklift is pulling heavy product from the top rack.

Engineering does a failure analysis and determines that the causes of an accident are a misbalanced load or another vehicle hitting the parked lift. A misbalanced load occurs when the load sensor fails and the forklift operator makes a judgment error. A collision is the result of safety operator tardiness and the lift operator not waiting, or safety operator inattentiveness in preventing traffic in the area.

Engineering found the likelihood of occurrence for each of the events:

Forklift Sensor Failure: 0.008

Forklift Operator Judgement Error: 0.02

Forklift Operator Impatience: 0.003

Safety Operator Inattentive: 0.0012

Safety Operator Late: 0.005

a. What is the probability that an accident will occur?

b. If the forklift is used to load/unload product from the aisle twice a month, what is the annual probability of an accident occurring? If the consequences of failure are lift threatening, do you find this acceptable?

c. The warehouse decides to improve the safety of the forklift operations by installing collision detection systems on their forklifts to alert drivers of impending collisions. That is, an alarm will sound if an object is in the path of the forklift. If the probability of the collision detection system failing is 0.0001, how will this improve the safety of the overall system?

Explanation / Answer

a). An accident will occur if any of the five erros occur.

Forklift Sensor Failure: 0.008

Forklift Operator Judgement Error: 0.02

Forklift Operator Impatience: 0.003

Safety Operator Inattentive: 0.0012

Safety Operator Late: 0.005

All events mutually exclusive.

Thus probability of accident occring = sum ( of all erro probability)

=0.12+0.008+0.005+0.003+0.002 =0.0372

b).In an year ,there will be 24 instances of occurance of accident .An accident is said to take place if it occurs in any any of these 24 events. The probability of occurance of an event in an year =1/24

The probability of occurance of accident =probability of occurance of event*probability of accident

Thus it will equal to (1/ 24)*0.0372 =0.000133

c). The sensor will reduce the probabilty of accidents due to collision by 0.0001 .

the probability of accident due to collision =0.0020

due ot sensor addition =0.0001*0.0020 =0.0000002

Thus we can see that with introduction of sensor the probabilty of collison reduces from 0.002 to 0.0000002

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