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On Homework 2, Problem 2, it was explained that the total number of goals scored

ID: 3353649 • Letter: O

Question

On Homework 2, Problem 2, it was explained that the total number of goals scored in the World Cup Finals is Poisson distributed with the average total number of goals scored = 2.67 goals per match. The answer to the rst part of that problem was that the probability of observing zero goals in the match was 6.93 × 102. Suppose your friend attends the World Cup Finals match and tells you that less than three goals were scored. With this new information, what is the revised probability that no goals were scored in this match?

Explanation / Answer

here probability of less than 3 goals =P(X<3 )=P(X=0)+P(X=1)+P(X=2) =e-2.672.670/0!+e-2.672.671/1!+e-2.672.672/2!

=0.5010

hence probability that no goals were scored in this match given  less than three goals were scored

=P(X=0|X<3 )=0.0693/0.5010 =0.1382

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