A company that manufactures cardboard boxes uses a creasing machine that it purc

Question

A company that manufactures cardboard boxes uses a creasing machine that it purchases from one of two suppliers - Nor D. Recently, 120 of these creasing machines were randomly sampled and tested to determine if each one was (defectively) making crooked creases (or non- defectively making straight creases). The results are shown in the following table: ND Crooked Creases 3 2 Straight Creases 7342 If you selected one of the crooked creasing machines at random, then what is the probability that the machine comes from N?

Explanation / Answer

By Bayes' theorem,

P(A / B) = P( A AND B) / P(B)

So,

P(N / Crooked creases) = P( N AND Crooked creases) / P( Crooked creases)

= 3 / ( 3 + 2)

= 3 / 5

= 0.6

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