The following table summarizes the results of a survey involving 1000 voting-age

Question

The following table summarizes the results of a survey involving 1000 voting-age people in Ohio in which, everyone was asked how they felt about the overall tone of the current presidential election campaign and what their party affiliation was. (a) What are the chances of a Republican feeling disgusted by the campaign? (b) What are the chances that someone who is feeling good about the campaign tone belongs to a third party? (c) What are the chances that a randomly chosen voter in Ohio is Democratic and is neutral about the tone of the campaign? (11) X Gecmetric ( P(x 15 2 5 R D 3 Party Disgusted 220 310 22 Feeling good | 2601 150-0 Neutral 20 5 3

Explanation / Answer

In this question, you have to use basic bayesian method. You have to use the given table in the correct manner

a) You can see from the table that republicans are of three type :Disgusted, Feeling good & neutral

So for getting the "feeling dusgusted type" republican probability will be :

P = Number of republican feeling disgusted / (Number of republican feeling disgusted + Number of republican feeling good + Number of republican feeling neutral)

i.e , P = 220 / (220+260+20)

= 0.44

b.) People who are feeling good can belong to any of the three parties.

Thus, P = people who are feeling good belonging to 3rd party / all the people who are feeling good

P = 10 / (10 + 150 + 260) = 0.0238

c.) P = people who are democratic and neutral / total people surveyed

= 5 / 1000 = 0.005

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