4. [20 Points] A pharmaceutical company has developed a nearly accurate test for

Question

4. [20 Points] A pharmaceutical company has developed a nearly accurate test for the disease A. The accuracy of the test is 99%, that is, with probability 0.99 it gives the correct result (the same probability for disease-positive-test and no-disease-negative-test combinations are assumed) and only in 1% of tested cases (probability 0.01) the result is wrong. The incidence of the disease in the population is 0.01% (probability 0.0001). Compute the probability that somebody from wide population who has tested positive indeed suffers from the disease. Would you recommend the test to be widely adopted?

Explanation / Answer

here probability of test ed positive =P(suffers and tested positive+not suffers and tested positive)

=0.0001*0.99+(1-0.0001)*(1-0.99)=0.010098

threfore probability of Disease given tested postiive =0.0001*0.99/0.010098 =0.0098

as probability of having disease given test is postive very less therefore we need to reconsider before adoptation

Related Questions

Navigate

• Browse (All)
• Browse 4
• Subjects

---

---

Integrity-first tutoring: explanations and feedback only — we do not complete graded work. Learn more.