number 11 the seasonally adjusted forecast for January and February of the sixth

Question

number 11

the seasonally adjusted forecast for January and February of the sixth year. Exercises 11. The planning department of Padget and Kure Shoes, the manufacturer of an exclusive brand of women's shoes, developed the following trend equation, in millions of pairs, based on five years of quarterly data. Y 3.301.75t McGraw-Hill Create Review Copy for Instructor Lynch. Not for distribution. nediate Business Statistics Chapter 16 The following table gives the seasonal factors for each quarter. Quarter IV Index 10.0 120.0 80.0 90.0 Determine the seasonally adjusted forecast for each of the four quarters of the sixth year. 12. Team Sports, Inc., sells sporting goods to high schools and colleges via a nationally dis-

Explanation / Answer

Here for any quarter seasonally adjusted forecast would be equal to

= (seasonal factor/100) * Trend line equation

so for Year 6 and quarter 1. time period t = 21st quarter

seasonal factor = 110.0

for trend line equation t = 5 * 4 + 1 = 21

so, y(21) = 3.30 + 1.75 * 21 = 40.05

SO, seasonally adjusted forecast for year 6 quarter 1 = 40.05 * (110/100) = 44.055 million

for Year 6 quarter 2 :

time period t = 22st quarter

seasonal factor = 120.0

for trend line equation t = 5 * 4 + 2 = 22

so, y(22) = 3.30 + 1.75 * 22 = 41.80

SO, seasonally adjusted forecast for year 6 quarter 2= 41.80 * (120/100) = 50.16 million

for Year 6 quarter 3:

time period t = 23st quarter

seasonal factor = 80.0

for trend line equation t = 5 * 4 + 3= 23

so, y(23) = 3.30 + 1.75 * 23 = 43.55

SO, seasonally adjusted forecast for year 6 quarter 3 = 43.55 * (80/100) = 34.84 million

for Year 6 quarter 4:

time period t = 24st quarter

seasonal factor = 90.0

for trend line equation t = 5 * 4 + 4= 24

so, y(24) = 3.30 + 1.75 * 24 = 45.30

SO, seasonally adjusted forecast for year 6 quarter 3 = 45.30 * (90/100) =40.77 million

All Bold values are the results here.

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