SQ1 Quarterly personal income Personal income (thousands of dollars) Bureau of E
ID: 3269128 • Letter: S
Question
SQ1 Quarterly personal income
Personal income (thousands of dollars)
Bureau of Economic Analysis
Area
Florida
2004Q1
573459848
2004Q2
587053600
2004Q3
598126720
2004Q4
614569392
2005Q1
627232460
2005Q2
639920476
2005Q3
655799200
2005Q4
665828760
2006Q1
691975416
2006Q2
698824396
2006Q3
706038204
2006Q4
716312524
2007Q1
722887356
2007Q2
730414736
2007Q3
735557568
2007Q4
738125088
2008Q1
740168256
2008Q2
745235760
2008Q3
736578004
2008Q4
722811364
2009Q1
700773684
2009Q2
696836708
2009Q3
691657328
2009Q4
696679104
2010Q1
710714600
2010Q2
722371388
2010Q3
729983120
2010Q4
738675924
2011Q1
752774452
2011Q2
759983520
2011Q3
765577524
2011Q4
766877432
2012Q1
779149188
2012Q2
784598872
2012Q3
789238752
2012Q4
816034732
2013Q1
800347192
2013Q2
811846449
2013Q3
821179749
2013Q4
827381096
a. Create a 4-period moving average forecast, an exponential smoothing forecast with alpha=0.2, and a linear trend forecast for your data.
b. Calculate the MSE and MAD for each.
c. Plot the original series, and each of the forecasts.
d. Create forecasts for 2014 using each of these three techniques. If you had to choose one of these, which would you choose and why?
e. Given your data, and this time period, would you prefer to try some other type of forecast, or modify the data in some way? (explain).
SQ1 Quarterly personal income
Personal income (thousands of dollars)
Bureau of Economic Analysis
Area
Florida
2004Q1
573459848
2004Q2
587053600
2004Q3
598126720
2004Q4
614569392
2005Q1
627232460
2005Q2
639920476
2005Q3
655799200
2005Q4
665828760
2006Q1
691975416
2006Q2
698824396
2006Q3
706038204
2006Q4
716312524
2007Q1
722887356
2007Q2
730414736
2007Q3
735557568
2007Q4
738125088
2008Q1
740168256
2008Q2
745235760
2008Q3
736578004
2008Q4
722811364
2009Q1
700773684
2009Q2
696836708
2009Q3
691657328
2009Q4
696679104
2010Q1
710714600
2010Q2
722371388
2010Q3
729983120
2010Q4
738675924
2011Q1
752774452
2011Q2
759983520
2011Q3
765577524
2011Q4
766877432
2012Q1
779149188
2012Q2
784598872
2012Q3
789238752
2012Q4
816034732
2013Q1
800347192
2013Q2
811846449
2013Q3
821179749
2013Q4
827381096
Explanation / Answer
d)4-period moving average should be used as it has low MSE and MAD
from 4-period
2014Q1 -81588622
exponential =800106412.8
Area Florida 4 period Exponential absolute difference (yi-y^)^2 2004Q1 573459848 573459848 0 0 2004Q2 587053600 573459848 13593752 1.8479E+14 2004Q3 598126720 absolute difference (yi-y^)^2 576178598.4 21948121.6 4.8172E+14 2004Q4 614569392 580568222.7 34001169.28 1.15608E+15 2005Q1 627232460 593302390 33930070 1.15125E+15 587368456.6 39864003.42 1.58914E+15 2005Q2 639920476 606745543 33174933 1.10058E+15 595341257.3 44579218.74 1.98731E+15 2005Q3 655799200 619962262 35836938 1.28429E+15 604257101 51542098.99 2.65659E+15 2005Q4 665828760 634380382 31448378 9.89E+14 614565520.8 51263239.19 2.62792E+15 2006Q1 691975416 647195224 44780192 2.00527E+15 624818168.6 67157247.35 4.5101E+15 2006Q2 698824396 663380963 35443433 1.25624E+15 638249618.1 60574777.88 3.6693E+15 2006Q3 706038204 678106943 27931261 7.80155E+14 650364573.7 55673630.31 3.09955E+15 2006Q4 716312524 690666694 25645830 6.57709E+14 661499299.8 54813224.25 3.00449E+15 2007Q1 722887356 703287635 19599721 3.84149E+14 672461944.6 50425411.4 2.54272E+15 2007Q2 730414736 711015620 19399116 3.76326E+14 682547026.9 47867709.12 2.29132E+15 2007Q3 735557568 718913205 16644363 2.77035E+14 692120568.7 43436999.29 1.88677E+15 2007Q4 738125088 726293046 11832042 1.39997E+14 700807968.6 37317119.43 1.39257E+15 2008Q1 740168256 731746187 8422069 7.09312E+13 708271392.5 31896863.55 1.01741E+15 2008Q2 745235760 736066412 9169348 8.40769E+13 714650765.2 30584994.84 9.35442E+14 2008Q3 736578004 739771668 3193664 1.01995E+13 720767764.1 15810239.87 2.49964E+14 2008Q4 722811364 740026777 17215413 2.9637E+14 723929812.1 1118448.103 1.25093E+12 2009Q1 700773684 736198346 35424662 1.25491E+15 723706122.5 22932438.48 5.25897E+14 2009Q2 696836708 726349703 29512995 8.71017E+14 719119634.8 22282926.79 4.96529E+14 2009Q3 691657328 714249940 22592612 5.10426E+14 714663049.4 23005721.43 5.29263E+14 2009Q4 696679104 703019771 6340667 4.02041E+13 710061905.1 13382801.14 1.79099E+14 2010Q1 710714600 696486706 14227894 2.02433E+14 707385344.9 3329255.085 1.10839E+13 2010Q2 722371388 698971935 23399453 5.47534E+14 708051195.9 14320192.07 2.05068E+14 2010Q3 729983120 705355605 24627515 6.06514E+14 710915234.3 19067885.65 3.63584E+14 2010Q4 738675924 714937053 23738871 5.63534E+14 714728811.5 23947112.52 5.73464E+14 2011Q1 752774452 725436258 27338194 7.47377E+14 719518234 33256218.02 1.10598E+15 2011Q2 759983520 735951221 24032299 5.77551E+14 726169477.6 33814042.42 1.14339E+15 2011Q3 765577524 745354254 20223270 4.08981E+14 732932286.1 32645237.93 1.06571E+15 2011Q4 766877432 754252855 12624577 1.5938E+14 739461333.7 27416098.35 7.51642E+14 2012Q1 779149188 761303232 17845956 3.18478E+14 744944553.3 34204634.68 1.16996E+15 2012Q2 784598872 767896916 16701956 2.78955E+14 751785480.3 32813391.74 1.07672E+15 2012Q3 789238752 774050754 15187998 2.30675E+14 758348158.6 30890593.39 9.54229E+14 2012Q4 816034732 779966061 36068671 1.30095E+15 764526277.3 51508454.71 2.65312E+15 2013Q1 800347192 792255386 8091806 6.54773E+13 774827968.2 25519223.77 6.51231E+14 2013Q2 811846449 797554887 14291562 2.04249E+14 779931813 31914636.02 1.01854E+15 2013Q3 821179749 804366781 16812967.75 2.82676E+14 786314740.2 34865008.81 1.21557E+15 2013Q4 827381096 812352031 15029065.5 2.25873E+14 793287741.9 34093354.05 1.16236E+15 MAD MSE MAD MSE 21792877.05 5.72425E+14 33278530.04 1.34143E+15Related Questions
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